South Korean giants Kia and Hyundai have the best chances of becoming the first foreign automakers to return to the Russian car market in the event of a possible geopolitical normalization and gradual easing of international sanctions. The forecast was made by the director of the analytical agency “Avtostat“ Sergey Tselikov in an interview with TASS.
According to the leading automotive analyst, the possible return of global brands is directly related to a change in the current political situation. “Once the restrictions are at least partially lifted, the following sequence is emerging: first the Korean brands Kia and Hyundai will return, followed by Japanese brands such as Subaru, Mazda and Toyota“, Tselikov pointed out.
At the same time, the expert stressed that a number of Western manufacturers are unlikely to ever resume their official presence. Among them, he pointed out Renault and Nissan, adding that the departure of the Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen concerns can be considered final. Particular attention was paid to BMW's strategy – The Bavarian premium brand continues to maintain a representative office at the local level and unofficially provides support for the dealer network, including by organizing spare parts and service access to software databases.
The final outcome for each individual manufacturer will depend entirely on the specific scope of the sanctions and the dynamics with which they would be lifted over time.
At the same time, market data from “Avtostat“ report a serious revival in the budget segment. In the second quarter, sales of new affordable cars in the Tatarstan region increased by 31% compared to the first three months of the year, and on an annual basis the growth reached 23%. The undisputed leaders in sales are the local manufacturer LADA (5,771 units), followed by Haval (1,839) and Tenet (1,437). All three brands recorded a significant increase compared to the same period in 2025 – by 22%, 45% and 9% respectively.
The general forecasts for the Russian automobile market are also optimistic. According to the chairman of the Russian Association of Automobile Dealers, Alexei Podshchekoldin, total sales of new cars and light commercial vehicles this year may increase by 10%, surpassing the threshold of 1.5 million units sold. Industry expectations indicate that with the inclusion of the secondary market for used vehicles, the total volume of transactions will exceed 8.6 million cars.