The rise in global oil prices after the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil in the US shows that markets are worried about a drop in Russian energy exports. This is according to Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultancy Rystad Energy.
„The latest US sanctions against Russia's largest oil producers represent a significant and unprecedented escalation in Washington's pressure campaign against Moscow.“ “The sharp rise in oil prices since the sanctions were announced highlights market concerns that Russian crude exports, especially to India, a key buyer, could fall sharply,“ he said.
According to Leon, the sanctions, combined with the strikes on Russian refineries, “increase the risk of a forced production shutdown.” “The increasingly complex geopolitical context could threaten the integrity of OPEC+'s strategy of gradually increasing supplies. If Russian production declines, it will be economically and politically disadvantageous for Moscow to support further production increases within the alliance.“ Such a scenario could cause internal tensions within OPEC+ as member countries weigh the need to stabilize the market against their own fiscal imperatives in an environment of heightened uncertainty, the expert added.
On Wednesday, the US Treasury Department included oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as 34 subsidiaries of these companies, in a new package of US sanctions.