The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global inflation to fall to 3.8% in 2026 and to 3.4% in 2027, the latest IMF report on the World Economic Outlook states.
Thus, the forecast for a decline in inflation in 2026 has been revised downward by 0.1 percentage points compared to the data presented in a similar report for October 2025. Experts estimated the rate of decline in inflation last year at 4.1%.
IMF experts point to weakening energy demand and lower energy prices as among the main factors contributing to the decline in global inflation. At the same time, they predict that the decline in inflation in the United States will be “more gradual than in other major economies“.
The IMF forecasts the average price of a barrel of oil to be $62.13 this year and $62.17 in 2027.
“The projected average price of a barrel of oil in US dollars, taking into account futures markets as of November 20, 2025, will be $62.13 in 2026 and $62.17 in 2027“, the study says. According to its authors, oil prices will fall by 8.5% this year and increase by 0.1% next year. These figures are revised down by -4% in 2026 and +0.3% in 2027 compared to the Fund's previous report “Global Economic Prospects“, published last October.
Overall, “energy prices are expected to fall by about 7% in 2026“, the IMF experts wrote. As they explained, “this is more than projected in the October 2025 report“. “Oil prices remain low and are expected to fall further due to weak global demand growth and strong supply growth. The soft price floor, however, is supported by higher-cost producers, China's strategic reserves, and the approach taken by OPEC+ to avoid a price collapse," the document notes.
“Natural gas prices are expected to remain relatively low due to weak energy demand driven by uncertainty, the European Union's more flexible storage targets, and the prospects for significant LNG supply in the medium term,“ IMF experts added.