Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will take months for the market to recover. This was stated by Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, during a conference call with investors.
„If the Strait of Hormuz opens today, it will take months for the market to balance. "And if its opening is delayed by a few more weeks, normalization will take until 2027, which further reinforces our view of the need to replenish significantly depleted reserves," he said.
Nasser noted that the shortage of supplies in the physical market is reflected in higher refining margins, especially for diesel and jet fuel.
Commenting on Saudi Aramco's first-quarter results, he noted that the company's production during the reporting period amounted to 12.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The global oil market lost more than 1.4 billion barrels of liquid hydrocarbons due to the conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 880 million barrels of this volume could not be replaced. This was stated in a presentation by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, made during a conference call with investors.
Nasser's presentation noted that due to the conflict in the Middle East, the market lost approximately 1.442 billion barrels, but some of the lost volume was replaced. However, about 880 million barrels of this volume could not be replaced.
“If the current supply disruptions continue, the market will continue to lose about 100 million barrels every week,” he said.
Nasser also noted that the world's energy reserves are rapidly depleting, especially reserves of petroleum products, and could reach critically low levels before the summer season. He also highlighted the clear divergence between futures and physical supply prices in energy markets, which is confirmed by high refining margins reflecting real market shortages.
“The longer supply disruptions continue, even for a few more weeks, the longer it will take to rebalance and stabilize the oil market. A return to normal conditions could take until 2027; one more shutdown is all that is needed,“ he said.
The Saudi company's head noted that the disruption of oil supplies has led to demand normalization, and a wide range of forecasts point to demand growth in 2026 of approximately 700,000-900,000 barrels per day. “We expect demand normalization to continue as long as supply disruptions persist, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz,“ he said. However, once normal trade and shipping resume, the company expects a very strong return to oil demand growth, significantly exceeding the original growth estimate for 2026.