In its gas market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects gas demand in the Middle East to decline for the first time in 33 years in 2026 due to the complex geopolitical situation.
„Natural gas consumption in the Middle East is forecast to decline by approximately 4%, the first annual decline in the region since 1993. Damage to local production and processing facilities, as well as reduced production of associated gas, are negatively impacting natural gas demand in the region“, the report states.
Therefore, gas demand in the Middle East in 2026 could reach 615 billion cubic meters, compared to 641 billion cubic meters in 2025.
Not only consumption, but also gas demand will decrease by nearly 0.5% globally. The reason is the conflict in the Middle East.
“Global gas demand is expected to decrease by about 0.5% (or 20 billion cubic meters) in 2026, which is the third annual decline this decade, after previous declines in 2020 and 2022“, the report states. Therefore, gas demand in 2026 could reach 4.28 trillion cubic meters. Cubic meters compared to 4.3 trillion cubic meters in 2025.
In Europe, natural gas demand will decrease by 2% due to significant growth in renewable energy production and higher gas prices. In North America, gas consumption will decrease slightly. Gas demand in Asia will decrease by 0.5% in 2026, as higher liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices support the energy sector's transition from gas to coal and lead to lower productivity in gas-intensive and energy-intensive industries. In the Middle East, gas consumption will fall by 4% due to military conflicts.
In Eurasia, on the other hand, demand will increase by approximately 3%. In Africa, gas demand is expected to remain broadly unchanged, while in Central and South America it will increase by almost 3%, as declining hydroelectric power generation is expected to lead to increased gas consumption.