German companies have drastically reduced their direct investments in the US in the first half of 2026, as uncertainty over tariffs and the trade policy of the Donald Trump administration increasingly cools plans for new projects across the Atlantic.
Direct investments by German companies in the US have fallen by almost two-thirds on an annual basis to 4.3 billion euros, or about 5 billion USD. This is the lowest level since 2023, according to calculations by the German Economic Institute IW, based on data from the German central bank. Compared to the first half of 2024, the decline reaches nearly 80%.
According to IW researcher Samina Sultan, the trend continues the decline that has been observed since the beginning of Donald Trump's second presidential term in January 2025. The main factor is uncertainty about US trade policy and the possibility of new or higher tariffs on imports.
The contrast with the period before the pandemic is significant. In the five years before COVID-19, German companies invested an average of EUR 15.8 billion in the US in the first six months of the year alone - almost four times more than reported in 2026.
However, the data does not mean that German businesses are withdrawing from the US market. Analysis of investment flows shows that companies that already have operations in the US continue to reinvest their profits. The sharper decline is seen in fresh equity and new investment projects.
“Companies already active in the US continue to reinvest their profits there“, Sultan points out. According to her, this is a sign that the US market remains attractive, but German companies are much more cautious about making new long-term commitments.
Uncertainty has increased after a series of decisions by Washington on customs policy. In May, the US administration raised tariffs on imported European cars from 15% to 25%, which directly affected German manufacturers such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen and Porsche.
A more detailed survey by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry DIHK also showed that German businesses remain wary of trade conditions with the US. Nearly 60% of the companies surveyed expect relations with Washington to bring them higher costs and administrative burdens, and among companies with direct business in the US, the share reaches 74%.
Thus, the US continues to be a key market for German companies, but in 2026 new investment decisions are increasingly being postponed. The data shows that the main problem is no longer a lack of interest in the American economy, but a lack of sufficient predictability for business.