The increased import of cheap manufactured goods from China has put pressure on manufacturing employment in South Korea, and in the most affected regions, the decline in stable jobs has been accompanied by a decline in marriages and birth rates among young people, according to a study by the Korea Labor Institute, cited by the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo.
The study analyzes how the increase in Chinese imports has affected local labor markets and the decisions of young Koreans to start a family. The results show that regions with a higher concentration of manufacturing, exposed to competition from China, have experienced a greater decline in manufacturing jobs.
The impact on men has been particularly strong, as many of the affected industries traditionally have a higher share of male employment.
The researchers find an important feature - the loss of manufacturing jobs does not always lead to an equally large decline in overall employment.
Some of the laid-off workers find work in services and other non-manufacturing activities. However, the new positions are more often temporary, low-paid or offer less security than traditional industrial jobs.
It is the deterioration in the quality of employment, and not just unemployment, that has emerged as an important factor in young people's decisions about whether to marry and have children.
The Korean researchers separately examined the effects on the group between 25 and 44 years old - the age at which major decisions about starting a family are usually made.
The analysis shows that increasing exposure to Chinese imports had a negative impact on employment in manufacturing for both men and women, but the effect was stronger for men.
Less “Marriageable” Men
The authors of the study also pay attention to the economically sensitive issue for South Korea of the number of so-called “marriageable men“ – men of an appropriate age who have a relatively stable job and income that allows them to start a family.
In Korean society, financial stability continues to play a significant role in the decision to marry, and marriage in turn remains strongly linked to fertility. The loss of relatively well-paid and secure manufacturing jobs could therefore have demographic consequences that go far beyond the immediate impact on the labor market.
The results are also in line with another South Korean academic study from 2023, which found that a higher share of manufacturing employment among people aged 20 to 44 is associated with higher marriage and fertility rates.
South Korea continues to struggle with demographic crisis
The results come amid South Korea’s long-standing efforts to overcome one of the most severe demographic crises among developed economies.
There are also early signs of improvement. The country’s fertility rate rose to 0.80 children per woman in 2025, up from 0.75 a year earlier. The number of marriages also rose by 8.1%, after an even stronger increase in 2024.
However, the birth rate remains extremely low and far below the level of about 2.1 children per woman needed for the natural reproduction of the population.
The new results add another element to the complex picture of Korea's demographic crisis. In addition to housing prices, the cost of raising children, changing public attitudes and the difficulty of combining career and family, the quality and security of jobs can also play a significant role in young people's decisions about whether to marry and become parents.