US President Donald Trump's attempts to limit the influence of BRICS may have the opposite effect and make the grouping more attractive to countries that want to reduce their dependence on the US financial system.
This thesis is developed by Ilan Kapoor, professor of critical development studies at York University in Toronto, in an analysis for Al Jazeera, published on September 12, when BRICS leaders gather for a summit in New Delhi.
His argument is based on Washington's increasingly active use of tariffs, sanctions and access to the US market as tools of foreign and trade policy. According to Kapoor, this could encourage other countries to create mechanisms that reduce their economic vulnerability to the United States.
BRICS is now much larger
BRICS's expansion in recent years has significantly increased the organization's economic and demographic weight.
By the 2026 meeting, the group includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. According to Indian government data, these 11 countries account for nearly half of the planet's population, about 40% of global GDP and approximately 26% of global trade.
However, the expansion does not mean that BRICS has become a single geopolitical bloc against the United States.
There are serious political, economic and strategic differences between the members. India and China, for example, have a long-standing border dispute, while the Middle Eastern countries in the organization have different positions on key regional conflicts. It is these contradictions that continue to limit the ability of BRICS to act as a unified political union.
The dollar remains far from losing its leading position
One of the most frequently discussed topics around BRICS is the possibility of the organization reducing the role of the US dollar.
So far, the data does not show that the world's reserve currency is close to losing its dominant position. According to International Monetary Fund data cited in the analysis, in the first quarter of 2026, the dollar accounted for 57.1% of the world's official foreign exchange reserves. The share of the Chinese yuan is about 2%.
The more significant change is happening at another level. Some BRICS countries are gradually increasing the use of national currencies in bilateral trade and developing payment mechanisms that do not require every transaction to go through the dollar.
Brazil and China, for example, are expanding the use of their own currencies in bilateral trade. India and the UAE have also made payments in rupees and dirhams, and a significant part of trade between Russia and China is already conducted in their national currencies.
This does not represent the creation of a new global financial system that could soon replace the dollar. Rather, it is about gradually building alternative channels for certain international payments.
BRICS is developing its own financial infrastructure
One of the organization's main practical tools is the New Development Bank, established in 2015.
The bank finances infrastructure projects and sustainable development, while at the same time seeking to increase the share of loans in the national currencies of member states.
A closer connection of national payment systems is also being discussed. Such initiatives are far from creating a single BRICS currency, but they could gradually reduce the need for certain transactions to go through the US financial infrastructure.
This is where the main paradox identified in Kapoor's analysis lies.
The more often Washington uses access to the US market and financial system as a means of political pressure, the stronger the incentive for the affected countries to build alternatives.
Not everyone wants to choose between Washington and Beijing
However, this does not mean automatic rapprochement with China.
India maintains extensive relations with the US, while simultaneously purchasing Russian energy raw materials and actively participating in the BRICS. Brazil has traditionally sought greater strategic autonomy, without necessarily wanting to fall under Chinese influence.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE also remain deeply tied to Western economies, despite expanding their relations with Beijing and the other BRICS members.
This shows that for many participants the goal is not necessarily to replace dependence on Washington with dependence on Beijing. What is more important is the ability to have more options and to balance between different centers of economic power.
Pressure can produce the opposite result
BRICS is still far from a single economic or political union. The differences between its members are significant, and the idea of a common currency has not become a real project capable of competing with the dollar.
However, the development of alternative payment systems, financing in local currencies and bilateral payments shows another trend: countries are looking for ways to have more freedom in their international economic relations.
Thus, Trump's policy may create a result opposite to that sought. Rather than discouraging countries from moving closer to the BRICS, economic pressure from Washington could make the organization more attractive as a platform for diversification.
This does not mean that the BRICS are on their way to replacing the US-dominated financial system. Rather, the challenge is to gradually create enough alternatives to give individual countries more freedom to reject Washington's decisions without the economic cost being as high.