France is on track to produce its smallest amount of wine since the turn of the century after extreme summer heat and drought hit vineyards in a number of the country's leading wine regions. This is according to an updated forecast by the French Ministry of Agriculture, quoted by Reuters.
The world's second-largest wine producer is expected to produce 34.9 million hectoliters in 2026. The forecast is improved from the 33.9 million hectoliters expected a month ago thanks to better-than-expected yields in Languedoc-Roussillon – the largest production region in France.
Despite the upward revision, the quantity will be 2% below last year's already weak harvest and 14% below the average for the period 2021-2025.
Drought and heat hit the vineyards
According to the French Ministry of Agriculture, the decline is due to both the reduction in vineyard areas and lower yields due to drought and intense summer heat.
However, the situation varies significantly between regions. Languedoc-Roussillon is doing better thanks to late summer rainfall and production there is already expected to be around 2% above the five-year average.
At the opposite end is Champagne, where the grape harvest ended in early September - the earliest on record. Production has halved both compared to 2025 and the five-year average. The reason is a combination of frost, hail, drought and high temperatures. A decline is also expected in Burgundy-Beaujolais, the Loire Valley, Charente, Jura and the south-east of France.
Bordeaux produces more, but remains below average
The situation is different in Bordeaux, where production is expected to be 10% higher than last year's poor harvest. However, it remains 11% below average.
The reason here is not only the climate. Some winegrowers in the region are removing vines due to declining wine consumption, which further limits production capacity.
The problem for the French wine industry is now twofold - climate change is putting pressure on yields, while weaker consumption is affecting demand. Official data shows that in the previous season, exports of French wines and spirits were already under pressure due to weaker demand in major markets such as the United States, Canada, China and Japan.
If the current forecast is confirmed, 2026 will bring the weakest French wine production since the beginning of the 21st century - another signal of the structural challenges facing one of France's most recognizable export sectors.