The European Union could face a shortage of up to 14 bcm of natural gas this winter, or about 7% of its consumption, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) has warned. The forecast is for the largest gas shortage in 15 years and is linked to low storage stocks, limited LNG supplies and higher demand.
On October 1, underground storage in the EU was about 72% full. This is the lowest level for the beginning of October since the beginning of observations in 2011. According to IEEFA, in a cold winter, stocks could decrease by up to 11%, and to restore them to 30% by the end of the heating season, consumption would need to be limited by a volume equal to about 7% of demand.
“This does not mean that gas in EU storage will completely run out this winter“, points out IEEFA. However, analysts warn that the lower level of stocks reduces the ability of storage to provide the necessary quantities in the event of a prolonged cold snap.
Additional imports will cost billions
According to the institute's estimate, covering the shortage entirely through additional imports, instead of by limiting consumption, could cost about 3 billion euros more than last year. The reason is the competition for LNG on the global market, where European buyers may face competition from Asia.
The pressure on the market is also increasing due to the upcoming restriction of Russian LNG. The European Union's ban on long-term contracts is due to come into force in January 2027. According to IEEFA, this could reduce imports by another 7 billion cubic meters.
In January 2026, EU countries withdrew 22.6 billion cubic meters of gas from storage. For comparison, in January 2025 the amount was 18.8 billion cubic meters, and in January 2024 - 17.8 billion cubic meters. The larger withdrawal leaves a smaller buffer before the new heating season.