The price of natural gas in Bulgaria rose by 32.52% in November, reaching €58.43 per megawatt-hour, excluding access, transmission, excise duty and VAT. In October, the price approved by the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission was €44.09/MWh.
The increase was not the result of a single factor. It was a combination of more expensive international markets, seasonally smaller quantities under the contract with Azerbaijan, and the need to cover the shortfall with liquefied natural gas and reserves from the Chiren underground storage facility.
A smaller share of Azerbaijani gas
The November mix includes the full monthly quantities under the long-term contract with Azerbaijan. However, these quantities are smaller during the winter months. This means that the relative share of the remaining supplies increases precisely when consumption usually rises.
EWRC Chairman Plamen Mladenovski explained that the contract with Azerbaijan had so far limited the impact of exchange prices, but its weight decreases in winter. “We are not an isolated island; we do not have our own access to natural gas,” Mladenovski told the Energy Committee of the National Assembly.
Expensive European market passed the pressure on to Bulgaria
Alternative quantities for Bulgaria are supplied mainly through liquefied natural gas purchased from traders following a tender. The price of these supplies is linked to international exchange levels. On October 28, the price of November gas at the Dutch TTF hub temporarily exceeded €100/MWh, having risen by around 31% compared with the beginning of the month.
The European market came under pressure because of the low storage filling levels ahead of winter. As of October 26, gas storage facilities were filled to 74.9% of their capacity—the lowest level for that point in the year since comparable statistics began in 2011. Smaller reserves leave a narrower buffer in the event of cold weather or supply disruptions.
Additional indirect pressure comes from the limited LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Europe and Asia are competing for a more limited number of cargoes, pushing up the price of liquefied gas. The International Energy Agency warned that weaker liquefied natural gas supply in 2026 could keep the market under pressure in 2027 as well.
“Chiren” reduced but did not eliminate the increase
The EWRC initially considered a price of €59.08/MWh. Following the regulator’s insistence, Bulgargaz used additional quantities from Chiren. This limited the increase to 32.52%. According to the EWRC, without this intervention, it would have reached 39.37% at current exchange levels.
The measure also has its limitations. Part of the gas in the storage facility—around 1.4 million MWh injected in 2022—was purchased at high prices and can be used economically primarily when the market becomes expensive again. This limits Chiren’s ability to permanently bring down prices.
What this means for households
The higher price charged by the public supplier does not automatically lead to an immediate increase in heating and electricity prices for household customers. Energy Minister Iva Petrova said that the impact on heating companies would be offset through regulatory mechanisms and the Electricity System Security Fund during the current period.
However, pressure remains on heating companies and industrial consumers. If European exchange prices remain high or winter drives up demand, the EWRC’s decisions in the coming months will once again depend on what share of the gas is secured under long-term contracts, what quantities will be available at Chiren, and at what price the next LNG cargoes will be purchased.
Sources: btvnovinite.bg, investor.bg, spglobal.com