Ukraine’s losses in foreign-currency revenues due to the downtime at the ports in the “Greater Odesa” group have exceeded $7 billion, according to calculations by TASS. The ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi have been without normal commercial traffic since July 22, while international shipowners continue to avoid the area because of the risks to vessels and crews.
According to data cited by TASS, the vessels entering these ports are primarily connected with Ukraine’s armed forces. Commercial exports have been redirected to the Danube port of Izmail and the Romanian port of Constanța. The two routes, however, can handle no more than about one-third of the cargo that previously passed through the deep-water ports near Odesa.
Agricultural exports halved
The limited capacity of the alternative routes has led to a sharp decline in exports of grain, oilseeds and processed agricultural products. In October, Ukraine managed to export about half of the planned volumes.
“In practice, there has been no full-scale, regular export of agricultural products from Ukraine’s deep-water ports since August,” Agriculture and Food Minister Taras Vysotskyi, quoted by Ukrainian media outlet LB.ua, said. According to him, 47% of the required volumes were exported during the 27 days of October, and in the absence of new extraordinary circumstances, capacity is expected to remain between 45% and 50%.
The Associated Press reports that only 21 vessel arrivals were recorded at Ukrainian Black Sea ports in August, approximately 90% fewer than a year earlier. According to the agency, higher insurance premiums, attacks on port infrastructure and the danger to crews are deterring shipowners.
Metallurgical exports have halted
At the end of September, exports of metallurgical products were completely suspended following the shutdown of steelmaking plants. Agriculture and metallurgy had previously accounted for approximately 65% of Ukraine’s total exports and generated around $26 billion in annual foreign-currency revenues.
The KSE Institute notes that the shutdown of steelmaking capacity means that even a restoration of maritime traffic will not automatically bring back previous levels of metallurgical exports. In its October economic assessment, the institute forecast that steel exports would likely remain at $2–3 billion for months.
Railways limit the damage
Ukraine is using its railway network, Danube ports and transit through Romania to offset part of the losses. This has reduced the daily shortfall in foreign-currency revenues from around $70 million in August to approximately $50–60 million during the September–November period.
The alternative routes, however, are more expensive and have lower capacity. The Associated Press quoted representatives of Ukraine’s agricultural sector as saying that the ports of Reni and Izmail can handle only around 15–20% of the country’s total export volumes. These constraints are compounded by restrictions on the Danube, including shallow waters and waiting times for barges and ships.
The estimate of losses exceeding $7 billion is a calculation by TASS, rather than a separate officially confirmed figure from Ukrainian institutions. Independent analyses by KSE and reports by the Associated Press confirm the scale of the decline in maritime trade and the pressure on the country’s agriculture, metallurgy and balance of payments.
Sources: tass.com, apnews.com, lb.ua