Martin Tabakov: Washington may leave the regime in Iran if its behavior changes

The military result is already visible, but the political one is not, said the international analyst

Снимка: bTV

US President Donald Trump said that there will be no deal with Iran, except for “unconditional surrender“.

According to international analyst Martin Tabakov, this shows how ambitious Washington's goals are in the current conflict.

“This first of all tells us how ambitious the US president is in his goals. We remember that when this conflict began, he set his main goal as regime change“, Tabakov points out.

According to him, in the first days of the war, American goals underwent a certain change. The initial idea of direct regime change was gradually reformulated into more specific military tasks – destruction of Tehran's missile and nuclear programs, as well as weakening its naval potential.

However, setting a goal of unconditional surrender seems too ambitious.

„For the sixth day of military operations, the regime in Tehran has not indicated with its behavior that it is inclined to accept this type of rhetoric - on the contrary. Everything we see at this stage is in the direction of further hardening of the regime“, says Tabakov.

However, he specifies that there are indications that Iran is still seeking contact with the United States.

„There are indications that Tehran wants to negotiate with the American side and that it has tried to establish contact with them - something that has not been answered. But the fact that Iran wants to negotiate does not mean that it will lead them, agreeing to unconditional surrender.“

According to Tabakov, it is possible that Washington will accept an outcome that does not involve the fall of the regime, but a change in its behavior.

“What is important for the Americans and what they can accept as a successful outcome is rather a change in the behavior of this regime“, he explains.

The analyst draws a parallel with the situation in Venezuela, where international pressure was aimed at changing the leadership, but not the entire system.

“This leads us to a scenario that we already know from Venezuela - where the de facto regime was preserved, and only the person who was supposed to lead it was changed. The point is that Iran is not Venezuela and it is much more difficult to carry out this type of political engineering.“

According to Tabakov, there is a significant difference between the strategies of Washington and Tel Aviv.

„Tel Aviv's ambitions are much more serious – in the direction that they are ready to wage this war for as long as necessary.“

According to him, the US is more pragmatically oriented and would cease hostilities if the Iranian regime's behavior changes.

„For Donald Trump, such negotiations, if they end with a change in the regime's behavior, would be enough for him to cease hostilities.“

For Israel, however, the goal is more radical.

„This is not necessarily true for Israel, which aims not only to destroy the regime's missile and nuclear programs, but also the regime itself – as an absolute guarantee that the policy of this country will be different.“

According to information from the White House, the active phase of hostilities could last between four and six weeks.

„This tells us in what period of time the US will have at least the military readiness to wage this conflict, because it is also a question of logistical considerations and the availability of ammunition.“

Tabakov emphasizes that the military result is already visible, but the political one is not.

„The military success of Israel and the US is already a fact. The point is that the political one is not yet available. If there is a problem with this campaign, it is that the technological advantage of Tel Aviv and Washington at this stage is not translating into political success.“

According to the analyst, Iran is trying to compensate for its military losses by expanding the conflict and applying economic pressure.

„The goal is to bring additional chaos and expand the conflict, turning it into a regional one.“

He points out that Tehran is paying a high price in human and material resources and is seeking to make its opponents suffer similar damage.

„Iran is well aware that it is paying an extremely high material and human price. The only thing left for him is to make his opponents pay the same price.“

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already causing serious problems in energy supplies.

„The very fact that the Strait of Hormuz is practically closed creates extremely large problems in the distribution of oil and natural gas, for now mainly for Asia.“

Tabakov notes that China - the main buyer of Iranian oil - is putting diplomatic pressure on Tehran.

„Indications are that Beijing is exerting strong diplomatic pressure on the authorities in Tehran to allow tankers with Iranian oil destined for Asia to pass.“

At the same time, Russia has an ambivalent position.

„The very fact that oil prices are rising is automatically in favor of the Putin regime.“

According to Tabakov, the countries of the region are unlikely to exert serious pressure on Washington.

„Honestly, I don't think this scenario is very realistic.“ He emphasizes that countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have no desire to actively participate in the war.

„Neither Abu Dhabi nor Riyadh have a particular desire to enter this conflict in its active phase.“ The reason is that shortly before the conflict began, they normalized their relations with Tehran.

„They had normalized their relations with Tehran – something that is now, unfortunately, frozen due to what is happening.“