The battle for "Dondukov" 2 begins, but at this stage it does not seem particularly intriguing. The bigger question is who will emerge as an alternative in the event of Rumen Radev's possible weakening. PR expert Diana Damyanova and economist Evgeni Kanev united around this thesis in the studio of "Denyat ON AIR".
According to Damyanova, it is the battle for second place that is key at this stage.
"Who will be second - this is the intrigue. This is a serious battle. Whoever manages to enter as a second political force, in the event of Radev's possible weakening, will emerge as the alternative," the expert commented to Bulgaria ON AIR.
According to her, the political picture has not changed drastically so far and the presidential race does not seem unpredictable. The big battle, according to her, is who will be able to establish themselves as the political alternative.
Damyanova believes that the credit to Rumen Radev is not exhausted and "is not even dented", and Iliyana Yotova manages to win over his electorate.
"The good news for Radev is that he has not lost anything significant", she summarized.
A runoff between Gyurov and Yotova?
Evgeniy Kanev also expects the battle to be decided in a second round.
"I would be surprised if there is no runoff between Gyurov and Yotova", he said.
Kanev gave the example of Romania, where the vote was reversed in the second round, and did not rule out a similar dynamic in our country.
The two guests also drew attention to the government's actions. According to Damyanova, what is worrying is that Radev's cabinet is not making a request for reforms, but is moving towards price regulations.
"The government never misses a day to surprise us with some practice from the past", commented Kanev in turn.
Will GERB voters support Gyurov
One of the significant differences between the two analysts is their assessment of the behavior of the GERB electorate.
Damyanova believes that GERB is choosing between two evils - to actively participate in the presidential race or to stay away from it. According to her, the party leader Boyko Borisov has assessed that the damage from the second option is less.
She does not expect support for Andrey Gyurov from GERB voters.
"I dare say that there are not a few people in GERB who would vote for Gyurov. "There is complete disgust," Damyanova assured.
According to her, GERB will not support Gyurov because of "carnal intolerance," which can be difficult to overcome even in the face of opposition along the Europe-Russia axis.
Kanev did not agree with this assessment.
"I know those who will vote for Gyurov," he pointed out and added that it cannot be claimed that if GERB does not support Gyurov, he will not reach the second round.
Non-voters remain the large free reserve
According to Damyanova, the main unused electoral resource is among the people who do not go to the polls.
"The resource is in one place - with non-voters from the population," she said.
The issue in her opinion, is whether the candidates will be able to reach these people. Damyanova sees potential for a shift among the electorate of "Vazrazhdane" as well, defining Petar Volgin as a "game changer" who can change the situation.
Kanev pointed to another possible reserve - the disappointed voters who previously supported Rumen Radev.
According to him, Andrey Gyurov has a different speech from the leaders of the democratic community and sufficient preparation for the presidential post.
"Whether this will be appreciated by those disappointed with Radev, I cannot say. I don't know if the vote will overflow," Kanev admitted.
"Radev has drained the vote tank"
Damyanova defined PP as an "economically leftist party" and even as "more left than the BSP". Therefore, according to her, the formation has no fundamental problem with left-wing voters.
"Radev has drained the vote reservoir. "Free" are only those who absolutely do not vote. There is no reservoir for change," she commented.
According to Damyanova, the preserved support for Radev also explains the behavior of Boyko Borisov, who probably prefers to preserve political resources for a moment when Radev begins to weaken.
Geopolitics as a "black swan"
A foreign policy event may turn out to be the factor that changes the preliminary calculations. Damyanova defined geopolitics as the possible "black swan" - an unpredictable development capable of turning the political situation upside down.
Kanev also sees a risk of unexpected developments.
"If drones continue to rain down - we only see Ukrainian ones, but Russian ones fall more often, if there are consequences - we don't know how it will be interpreted," he warned.
Kanev also raised the question of how Bulgarian voters would react to a woman in the role of supreme commander.
Regarding the MRF, Damyanova stated that "there is no president without the MRF", while Kanev believes that the movement's voters will not vote "under the radar", but will support different candidates.