Lyubomir Stefanov: The intrigue of the presidential elections is who will reach the runoff against Yotova

GERB will certainly not benefit from the decision not to nominate its own candidate for the presidential elections. This was stated in “Offensive with Lyubo Ognyanov” by political scientist Lyubomir Stefanov, commenting on the nominations for presidential candidates for the upcoming October vote for head of state.

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According to him, the party's decision is related to political calculations, but the arguments with which Boyko Borisov explains it are not convincing enough. “There is no Olympic principle in elections. If someone thinks there is, it is because of a subsidy. There is no subsidy on the topic of presidential elections. Only in the parliamentary elections there is“, explained the political scientist.

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According to him, the argument that GERB does not have the resources for a presidential campaign also falls away, since the party already has a parliamentary subsidy. “The rest is already thin calculations. Thin calculations that I do not understand”, he said. And he added that GERB's decision not to participate with its own candidate may leave some of its voters without a clear political direction. “When you leave a given electorate without a focal point, without some core, some point in the campaign that would keep it together, not scattered, in the local elections, how are you going to bring it together?“, he asked.

Stefanov pointed out that the voters of the different parties are not strictly tied to one political formation and some of them can change their preferences. According to him, the electorate of “Progressive Bulgaria“ is particularly dynamic. “They are not organized in the sense of party logic. They are based on sympathies. Emotions drive things there“, he commented.

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And he was categorical that he did not expect all voters who supported the formation to automatically stand behind Iliyana Yotova. “One million and four hundred thousand cannot automatically go to her. The question is how many of them will stay. Most likely a significant one. However, the others will go elsewhere. Absolutely certain“, he predicted.

Some of these votes may go to “Vazrazhdane“, “We Continue the Change“ or GERB. Stefanov recalled that a significant part of the voters who supported Rumen Radev in his second presidential term were associated with the so-called parties of change.

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The political scientist also commented on the division between “We Continue the Change“ and “Democratic Bulgaria“. According to him, the candidates of the two formations would have difficulty reaching the run-off if they appeared separately. “Their candidates, being divided - let me remind you that they are not together, but separately, cannot produce a result that would send them to the run-off. Gyurov is the only way out for them“, Stefanov believes.

Regarding the candidates' chances, Stefanov believes that at the moment the intrigue is mainly for the second place, which gives the right to participate in the run-off against Iliyana Yotova. “I don't see who else can go first to the run-off besides her. The question is who will be second in the run-off and, respectively, will participate in the duel against her“, said the political scientist.