GERB was faced with two difficult decisions when determining its strategy for the presidential elections and ultimately chose to bear the political cost of not nominating its own candidate. This was commented on by sociologist Boryana Dimitrova on bTV.
According to her, the other option — for the party to participate with its own candidate — carried the risk of a serious electoral loss if its candidate came third.
„In one case, it only pays the political cost of not nominating a candidate“, Dimitrova pointed out. According to her, the other option could have led to more serious electoral damage.
Where will GERB voters go?
One of the most interesting questions in the upcoming campaign is how GERB's electorate will behave.
Dimitrova defined the party's voters as the “main moving body“ in the current elections. According to her, it is important to monitor whether some of these voters will turn to other political forces.
According to her, there is also a longer-term risk - some of GERB's voters will build lasting loyalty to other political formations.
“Historical moment“ for GERB
Dobromir Zhivkov described the situation as a historic moment, as GERB is left without its own presidential candidate for the first time.
According to him, a possible joint candidacy of GERB and “Continuing the Change“ would also bring negatives for both.
Zhivkov believes that if the presidential campaign is dominated by geopolitical issues and political opposition, this could strengthen the left-right divide and help the pro-European couple Gyurov–Kandev in a possible second round.
The real test will come later
Boryana Dimitrova believes that the current political moves are just the beginning of a process that will show whether GERB manages to build a new strategy.
“The denouement will come in the local elections,“ she pointed out. According to the sociologist, it will be seen then how the current decisions will affect the party's electoral weight.
However, the upcoming presidential elections will be the first major test for the new political configuration.
A particularly important question will be whether voters will vote primarily for personalities and political programs or whether the vote will become a kind of referendum on the direction of the country.