Less than a month before the presidential vote, less than 50% of voters have decided to vote, and have chosen for whom. This is shown by a survey by the "Sova Harris" agency, conducted in the period 23-28 September among 1000 Bulgarian citizens, quoted by News.bg
The agency notes that this means that in the first round we can expect a little less than 2.5 million voters to go to the polls. It is specified that these calculations are made on the basis of people actually existing in the country, not taking into account compatriots living abroad included in the electoral lists.
A little over half of those who indicated that they would vote for a specific presidential candidate pair stated that they would support the candidacy of Iliyana Yotova - Kiril Valchev. This is about twice as much as the second-most supported pair, Andrey Gyurov - Georgi Kandev, and four times as much as the third-most supported pair, Kostadin Kostadinov - Petar Volgin. There is no other presidential candidate pair that receives significant support. About 13.4% of the votes will be distributed among the remaining 24 candidates.
"Sova Harris" indicates that with these results, there will be a second round, since the law requires that over 50% of voters vote, but the official lists also include Bulgarians living abroad. It is likely that the first two pairs will go to a runoff - Iliyana Yotova - Kiril Valchev against Andrey Gyurov - Georgi Kandev.
According to the "trust" indicator, Iliyana Yotova ranks first among the leading Bulgarian politicians (45.7%). Very close to her result is that of Prime Minister Rumen Radev - 44.6%. In the pre-election situation, Andrey Gyurov reaches third place, but at a significant distance from the favorites with 19.4%. Next is the leader of "Vazrazhdane" Kostadin Kostadinov with 17.2%, who is recovering some of the positions lost in the last parliamentary elections. Krum Zarkov is in fifth place with 15.2% trust. Next is the unblock group of politicians from the right spectrum: Asen Vassilev (14.7%), Radan Kanev (12.8%), Bozhidar Bozhanov (12.6%) and Ivaylo Mirchev (12.5%). They are followed by Radostin Vassilev with 11.1%.
The agency notes that the decision of GERB leader Boyko Borisov for his party not to participate in the presidential race is clearly not well received by voters. The decline in trust in him is obvious and currently only 10% express trust in him. He is followed by Ivelin Mihaylov (8%), and at the bottom of this ranking is Delyan Peevski with 2.7%.
The survey also shows that the church is the institution that enjoys the greatest trust among Bulgarian citizens - 58%. Next are the law enforcement agencies, such as the police (47.4%) and the army (46.9%). The presidency is also in this group with 46.8%, which shows that the current president has positioned the agency he leads as a support for public relations. The government has always borne enormous responsibility and expectations, and we can accept these 35.1% as maintaining the trust from the last parliamentary elections, the agency notes. The parliament cannot boast of a good result (20.2%), and the court with 18.8% and the prosecutor's office with 16.2% continue to be debtors to society.
People categorically single out high prices and inflation as the most serious problem in the country - 53.7%. Citizens' incomes are falling, which poses serious problems for average families. No matter how complex the factors that determine the situation are, the responsibility lies with the executive branch and citizens want to see adequate and timely measures to control the situation. If a little over 1/3 of people believe that the government is doing a rather successful job, then those who are critical are already 44.6%. Obviously, the pace at which the measures are being implemented does not meet the expectations of a significant part of the electorate.
Prime Minister Rumen Radev's thesis on the war in Ukraine, that there can be no successful military solution and EU leaders need to establish diplomatic contacts for dialogue with Russia, is perceived approvingly.
There is a clear majority of adult Bulgarian citizens who agree with the formulated thesis - 58.4%. The share of those who disagree is relatively small - 18%, while nearly 1/4 cannot judge.
This is a strongly expressed agreement with the direction that the Bulgarian government's foreign policy is following. At the same time, 23.6% of undecided people show that the issue is not completely consolidating even with the prevailing agreement.
The prevailing opinion is that Ukraine should make peace with Russia by agreeing to territorial concessions - 46.5%. 26.1% disagree, 27.4% cannot judge. Agreement with the more general thesis about the need for diplomatic dialogue (58.4%) is significantly higher than the willingness to support a specific condition for peace - territorial concessions (46.5%). This is a sociologically significant difference between a general attitude and a specific political consequence.
Regarding Ursula von der Leyen's thesis that Russia's energy resources are toxic for Europe and European countries should give up on them in the long term, Bulgarians are the most categorical. Nearly 2/3 - 65.8% - disagree with the formulated thesis, while only 12% support it. The difference is huge. This is an issue where there is such a clearly expressed dominant position. At the same time, 22.2% cannot judge, which again indicates the presence of a significant segment without a categorical position.
The case of raising the issue of the pardon of the drug dealer by Petrich by Iliana Yotova receives a contradictory assessment from the public. Here, an almost equal division of public opinion is visible, without a clearly expressed majority. The positive assessment of raising the case is only 3.6% higher than the negative one, and almost every fourth person does not form an opinion. Sociologically, this speaks more of a polarized and sensitive issue than of a public consensus.
The presentation of data on the "Petrokhan" case during the presidential campaign is perceived differently than the above question. Here, the difference between the positive and negative assessment is more tangible - 12.6%. However, here too there is no absolute majority: 43.7% consider the disclosure of the data to be appropriate, while 1/4 cannot judge.
According to the agency, the interesting thing is that the public reaction to the two cases is not the same. In the case of "Petrokhan", approval for the way the topic was presented is higher, and disapproval - lower. This suggests that people distinguish between the two cases, and do not perceive them as a common pre-election behavior.
As a summary of the survey data, it can be said that the activated cores of supporters of the three prominent pairs of candidates are different in size. There are no signs that any of the candidates is attracting a significant periphery. The attitudes from the last parliamentary elections are preserved in the current situation. People expect a change in the model of recent years. Therefore, according to the prevailing opinion, consolidation between the executive and presidential powers is needed, rather than corrective relations between the two.