Three weeks before the presidential elections on October 25, the presidential candidate couple Iliyana Yotova – Kiril Valchev have a significant lead over the other participants, according to the data of “Alpha Research“, presented in the program “This Morning“ on bTV by sociologist Boryana Dimitrova.
The survey was conducted in the period September 24 – October 1, 2026 among 1,000 adult citizens from across the country, through a direct standardized interview with tablets at home, in a two-stage sample with a quota based on the main socio-demographic characteristics.
According to the study, interest in the presidential elections at the beginning of the campaign is lower compared to the early parliamentary elections on April 19. About 2.4-2.6 million voters declare their readiness to vote, which means a certain runoff, Dimitrova noted.
If the elections were held today, the turnout would be about 37-38% of voters on the CEC lists. Sociologists do not expect significant mobilization in the remaining weeks, although the campaign can still change attitudes.
Among the main reasons for refusing to vote, disappointment with politicians stands out. About 40% of those who said they would not vote cited this as the reason, and about 24% said that there was no candidate to represent them.
The profile of non-voters is diverse. This group includes both traditionally non-voting voters and people who participated in the vote in April, but are now withdrawing from the electoral process again. Among those who cannot find a candidate, according to “Alpha Research“ there are supporters of GERB, DPS and some right-wing voters.
In terms of electoral attitudes among those who have firmly decided to vote, the couple Iliyana Yotova – Kiril Valchev receives 44.5% support.
In second place is the couple Andrey Gyurov – Georgi Kandev with 26.1%. According to Boryana Dimitrova, this position shows a serious electoral base and potential for expanding support beyond the traditional right and liberal right.
Third are Kostadin Kostadinov and Volgin with a result close to that which “Vazrazhdane“ received in the parliamentary elections in April. This is also one of the few leading presidential candidate pairs nominated with a direct party candidacy.
According to Dimitrova, the goal of this candidacy is also to strengthen the positions of “Vazrazhdane“. While the first two pairs were nominated by initiative committees and receive party support, Kostadinov and Volgin are seeking to mobilize the party vote.
The remaining candidates are currently moving in significantly lower ranges - approximately between 1% and 3%. However, shifts are possible within this range, as some voters make their final decision during the campaign or immediately before election day.
According to “Alpha Research“ at this stage, it seems practically impossible for a candidate from fourth place or lower to make a breakthrough to the top pair. At the same time, changes in the positions of the leading candidates cannot be ruled out by the end of the campaign.
The main conclusion from the study is for a certain run-off, and at the moment the most likely scenario is for it to be between the first two presidential candidate pairs. However, there are still three weeks of campaign ahead, during which changes in voter mobilization and behavior may occur.
The “Alpha Research“ study was conducted between September 24 and October 1, 2026 among 1,000 adult citizens from across the country. A two-stage sample with a quota based on the main socio-demographic characteristics was used, and the information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.