What we observed yesterday is a new escalation of the tension we have in the Black Sea. From all the facts we have, what must be emphasized is that this was a targeted, planned attack.
This was stated by international security expert Ivaylo Ivanov for the Bulgarian National Radio.
"The two ships were, at the time of their hitting, about 8 km. from each other. That is, we cannot say that one was targeted, and the other was hit by chance. We cannot say that this was some random strike, such as the cases we have had in recent years - with a drone whose control system failed and deviated from its course. This is a targeted, planned strike. According to the information, the ship that sank was hit about 30 minutes before the second ship was hit, that is, it was quite clear and targeted what was being done. From this point of view, this is indeed a new escalation.
The incident occurred outside the territorial waters of Bulgaria, but in its exclusive economic zone. There, Bulgaria has sovereign rights with respect to economic resources, but, from the point of view of shipping, these territories are equated with international maritime space, explained Ivanov, according to whom this "shows an extremely dangerous trend". He pointed out that for several weeks a new Russian strategy has been observed to "interrupt shipping with respect to Ukraine".
"In my opinion, it is very unlikely that these are not Russian drones. We are unlikely to find any hard, forensic evidence that this is the case, but a few logical facts that, if we arrange them, practically do not give any other conclusion.
The one ship that fortunately did not sink was carrying Ukrainian grain. Secondly, this is a corridor that Ukraine has been using since 2022 for shipping, which was in the westernmost part of the Black Sea and was protected from Russian attacks, since the Russian Navy was, thanks to Ukraine's successful actions, pulled to the eastern end of the Black Sea and this did not allow Russia to actually attack merchant ships, but with the advancement of Russia's drone technology, this has obviously already changed.
"Increasing the risks for shipping in the Black Sea is practically a direct attack on Bulgaria's economic interests," Ivanov commented to "Horizont".
"We have two effects, practically, from this. One is an increase in insurance for ships that carry cargo and enter the Black Sea, which, of course, makes the transport itself more expensive and these costs will naturally then be borne by Bulgarian citizens and the Bulgarian economy as a whole. The second effect - the number of ships that will be ready to enter the Black Sea and carry out transports, due to the increased risk, will simply decrease. So this poses a threat along this line as well".
The indirect effect is to put pressure on neighboring countries, especially those that are members of NATO and the EU, to reduce their support for Ukraine".
For 2 months, various intelligence services have been reporting the danger of Russia preparing an attack under the so-called "false flag" - to use captured Ukrainian drones to launch and damage NATO and EU member states in order to blame Ukraine and turn public opinion against it, the expert warned in "Above All".
Marco Rubio's visit to Iceland, Greece and Portugal shows those "support points that allow the United States of America to project power not only on the territory of the European continent", but also in Africa and the Middle East. Rubio has a different approach than Witkoff and Kushner and "is clearly aware that these relationships are extremely important".
Regarding today's JSC on threats to maritime security, he commented:
"Overall, the situation has not changed much. These threats have existed since the beginning of the Russian aggression against Ukraine. What we have been observing over the last maybe 2 months is Russia taking extremely risky, reckless moves.
In fact, this is the main threat - Russia, testing where our red line is and not meeting any response, is in danger of ultimately taking action that will ultimately put us in a situation where we will not be able to have a choice in terms of our reaction".
In the future, Bulgaria must seek closer cooperation with the EU and NATO countries, and especially with those that have access to the Black Sea - Romania and Turkey, and on the other hand, it needs support to increase defense spending, he is convinced.
"The world will experience a period of violence for at least the next decade, and perhaps longer, until a new international order with some stricter norms is established that will allow the level of violence and the instrument of violence to decrease in importance".
In the three years since the start of the severe Israel-Gaza Strip conflict, "unfortunately, we haven't made much progress. The best news is that we haven't had any major active fighting. We've had a ceasefire for a year, but since then we haven't had any breakthrough -- neither Hamas disarming nor Israel withdrawing".