Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev are leading convincingly at the beginning of the presidential election campaign with 44.9% support. In second position are Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev with 24.8%, and in third place are Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin with 10.9%.
The data is from a nationally representative survey by “Gallup International Balkan“, conducted between September 26 and October 6. The vote for president and vice president is scheduled for October 25, 2026.
“At the beginning of the campaign, the presidential race is structured around a clearly defined leader and a clear second contender“, the study analysis states.
Distance between the leading pairs
After the first three presidential candidate pairs are Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova with 4.1%, Radostin Vassilev and Krasimir Manov with 2.6%, Nikolay Nenchev and Tsveta Kirilova with 2.1%, Ivaylo Simeonov and Kosyo Stoychev with 1.7% and Ivelin Mihaylov and Juliana Mateeva with 1.6%.
According to “Gallup International Balkan“ The difference between the first two pairs and the remaining candidates makes a runoff with their participation the most likely scenario given the current attitudes. However, the agency specifies that the result of the second round cannot be mechanically deduced from the support of the first.
Among the factors that can influence the runoff are the behavior of the voters of the dropped candidates, the mobilization of the party cores and the ability of the finalists to attract vacillating voters.
The campaign can change the differences
52.8% of those who have firmly decided to vote say that they have made their choice even before the start of the campaign. This share outlines stable electoral cores around the candidates supported by larger political formations.
At the same time, 34.7% of voters indicate that they form their final position precisely during the campaign. Another 9.8% decide who to support in the last days before the vote, and 2.7% - directly on election day.
Thus, a total of 12.5% remain a potentially mobile vote until the very end of the electoral process. With the expected low turnout, this share may affect the ranking, especially with smaller differences between candidates.
Personality is the leading factor in the choice
For 38.9% of citizens, the personality of the candidate is of decisive importance. In second place is support from political parties - a factor indicated by 24.4% of voters.
Geopolitical orientation and positions on key foreign policy issues are decisive for 15.6%. The analysis also indicates that more than half of GERB and MRF supporters do not intend to vote on October 25, following their parties' position not to run their own candidates. Their vote remains a potential reserve in the event of a second round.