Iliyana Yotova and Kiril Valchev lead with 44.9% support among those who have decided to vote before the presidential elections. Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev are second with 24.8%, which makes the difference between the two presidential candidate pairs 20.1 percentage points, according to a nationally representative survey by “Gallup International Balkan“.
In third place are Kostadin Kostadinov and Petar Volgin with 10.9%. Followed by Ivan Hristanov and Stoyanka Cherkezova with 4.1%, Radostin Vassilev and Krasimir Manov with 2.6%, Nikolay Nenchev and Tsveta Kirilova with 2.1%, Ivaylo Simeonov and Kosyo Stoychev with 1.7% and Ivelin Mihaylov and Juliana Mateeva with 1.6%.
Low turnout expected
The survey was conducted between September 26 and October 6, 2026 among 987 adult citizens of Bulgaria. The interviews were conducted through a direct standardized interview with tablets using the “face-to-face“ method, and the survey was financed with “Gallup International Balkan“'s own funds.
The expected turnout is between 2.3 and 2.4 million voters, or about 36%. The agency's executive director Petko Petkov told NOVA NEWS: “The big issue is not so much the difference between the first two, but the low turnout.“ According to him, the turnout is expected to be around 35-36%.
Among the reasons for the low turnout, Petkov pointed to the quality of the candidacies, the entirely machine voting and the fact that the presidential vote is being held independently, without parallel parliamentary or local elections.
A runoff remains the most likely scenario
According to “Gallup International Balkan“ the significant distance between the first two pairs and the remaining candidates makes a runoff with the participation of Yotova-Vulchev and Gyurov-Kandev the most likely scenario given the current attitudes.
However, the agency notes that the outcome of the second round cannot be mechanically deduced from the results of the first. The behavior of voters for the dropped candidates, the mobilization of party cores, and the ability of the two finalists to attract undecided voters will have an impact.
More than half of those who have firmly decided to vote have made their choice even before the start of the campaign. The presidential elections are scheduled for October 25, and the possible runoff will be held on November 1.
Sources: nova.bg, bgonair.bg, vesti.bg