It is important to establish what goals were pursued with the strikes in the exclusive economic zones of Bulgaria and Romania and whether they were achieved. This was commented on “The Day Begins“ by the former Deputy Minister of Defense and Chairman of the Sofia Security Forum Yordan Bozhilov.
According to him, it is necessary to analyze possible scenarios and build readiness to respond to such attacks.
Bulgaria must review the legislation and mechanisms for responding to attacks in the gray area between peace and war, accelerate coordination with allies and strengthen consultations with Romania and Turkey. This was commented on “The Day Begins“ former Deputy Minister of Defense and Chairman of the Sofia Security Forum Yordan Bozhilov. According to him, the goals of these attacks should be analyzed.
According to Yordan Bozhilov, Bulgaria is not the only country in NATO and the European Union that is not fully prepared for attacks that are below the threshold of conventional military conflict. According to him, a comprehensive review of the legislation and the way in which institutions should act in such situations is necessary.
Bozhilov pointed out that the resilience of the state includes not only the preparation of security forces, but also the protection of critical infrastructure and the readiness of the population.
„Especially for these types of attacks that are in the gray area between peace and war, both the European Union and NATO have been talking for a long time. NATO literally two weeks ago adopted a document called „Basic principles for building resilience“. The European Union adopted a document similar to this last year. What does resilience mean? First - preparation. Preparation of the security forces. Preparation of the state for action. But this resilience means preparation of the critical infrastructure. If we have an interruption in the supply of gas or electricity, to have the ability to restore the function very quickly, even if the physical connection is interrupted. We must have preparation of the population for action. In other words, this is a very, very complex set of issues that we really need to prepare for“, he said.
According to Bozhilov, changes in the regulatory framework do not require significant financial resources, but political will and coordinated work. According to him, an analysis was prepared last year and presented to the ministries, but little action has been taken since then.
“Of course, acquiring funds is mandatory, but, as you said, it takes time. That is, we need to think about how to make the processes much faster and more effective. So that they are not so slow, taking years. And most of all, what can we do within NATO and the EU? This is the fastest, most effective way, but we need to talk mainly with the allies, with the neighboring allies and then within international organizations with the other countries“, he said.
According to Bozhilov, in the recent strikes in the exclusive economic zones of Bulgaria and Romania it is important to establish what goals were pursued and whether they were achieved.
“For me, the main question is whether these strikes achieved the goals and what those goals were. I could say that the goals could be, for example, stopping maritime traffic related to the export of Ukrainian grain and products. This could be creating additional tension in the Black Sea. This could be a kind of confrontation with NATO under the war line, but testing the actions of NATO countries, testing political reactions. "And it could be all of these goals taken together," he said.
Bozhilov noted that if the goals of the attacks are not achieved, new strikes may follow. Therefore, according to him, it is important to analyze the different scenarios and possible reactions of Bulgaria and NATO.
The conversation also raised the issue of a possible activation of Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for consultations between allies when one of the countries believes that its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened.
Bozhilov pointed out that such a step should be considered carefully, especially given the connection between the consultations under Article 4 and the possible activation of Article 5 for collective defense.
“We must keep one thing in mind when this article is triggered. Because after this article follows Article 5, which is an article on collective defense. If, for example, a strike is carried out against a ship in the territorial waters of Bulgaria, what will be our reaction? This may not be a Bulgarian ship. And here the question is whether Bulgarian national security, territory, territorial security, sovereignty are threatened. These are issues that require very deep analysis and playing out different scenarios and options for action“, he said.
According to him, NATO unity is particularly important, since the activation of Article 5 requires consensus among the allies. Bozhilov warned that attempts to provoke such situations could test the Alliance's ability to make common decisions.
“NATO must remain united. And especially when Article 5 is activated. Because Article 4 does not require consensus, but Article 5 does. NATO must be ready to trigger this article. And Russia is trying to do exactly that. One of Russia's goals is to show that NATO is dysfunctional, NATO will not use Article 5 and any actions can be taken, precisely to provoke the activation of Article 5 and the possible failure to reach agreement by the member states,“ he said.
Bozhilov stressed that decisions on how to respond to such incidents are political, but must be based on in-depth expert analyses. According to him, responsible political speech and more active communication with neighboring countries are necessary.
As a concrete step, he pointed out the need for mechanisms for consultations with Romania and Turkey. According to him, Bulgaria has so far been passive and must strengthen its participation in regional security formats.