The attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea have reached the European Council. What support will Bulgaria and Romania receive from the EU and NATO for shipping security? Will surveillance and protection against drones be strengthened? Can a moratorium on attacks on civilian ships stop the escalation? These questions were commented on in the program “Hello, Bulgaria” by economist Kuzman Iliev and Plamen Dimitrov from the Bulgarian Geopolitical Society.
”The war between Russia and Ukraine is spreading to the Black Sea and this will continue for a long time”, said Plamen Dimitrov.
According to him, Russia has three main directions of attack. The first is the front in Donbas, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. “Things are not going well there for either Russia or Ukraine. There is no movement on the front”, said Dimitrov.
Russia's other goal, according to him, is to reduce European support for Ukraine. “Russia hopes that a force will come to power in one of the major European countries that will refuse support for Ukraine”, said Dimitrov.
The third goal, according to him, is for Ukraine to be left without electricity, heating and other vital resources, so that it becomes impossible to live there.
”What is happening in the Black Sea - the attack on Ukraine's economic interests - is part of this war. This is the plot that Bulgaria and Romania have found themselves in,” said Dimitrov.
According to economist Kuzman Iliev, with the attacks on ships, Moscow is responding to the detained vessels, which Europe identifies as part of the “shadow fleet of Russia”.
”The goal is to have a practical blockade over Odessa. The isolation of Ukraine in the southern ports means an incredible economic blow”, believes Iliev.
He is categorical that the war is currently not directed at NATO and Bulgaria is not part of this war.
”We should know it. We should not behave hysterically, as if we are part of the war. We should act like the people who ”steer the ship”. That is, let's not say now: “NATO, come in, save us”, because we can escalate, but let's realize that these ships most likely also have ammunition. We need to turn the Black Sea into a calm sea, where commercial ships are not hit. There should certainly be no weapons and soldiers in these ships. This is very important”, said Iliev.
The proposal for corridors - one for Russian, the other for Ukrainian ships, will not be accepted by Moscow, believes Plamen Dimitrov.
”The only possible thing is to strengthen surveillance and air defense in the Black Sea of Bulgaria and Romania. "Of course, this will not stop the attacks," Dimitrov said.
Kuzman Iliev believes that there should be negotiations.
“I do not think that Ukraine should capitulate. The word “diplomacy” should return to Europe. This war has a political issue that needs to be resolved – about the situation of the Russian-speaking population in Eastern Ukraine. I do not think that the Russians want to conquer Ukraine. But if the war continues, they will make Kiev uninhabitable,” said Kuzman Iliev.