GERB falls below 10% in a new national survey by “Market LINKS“, financed and implemented jointly with bTV. In a hypothetical parliamentary election, the party would receive 9.6% support and remains behind “We continue the change“, which is with 10.2%. “Democratic Bulgaria“ collects about 7%.
The survey was conducted between October 13 and 19 among 1,006 adult citizens through direct personal interviews and an online survey. It is not an election result, but a snapshot of attitudes in a period in which the main political event is the presidential elections on October 25.
The difference compared to April
In the parliamentary vote on April 19, GERB-SDF received 433,755 votes, or 13.39%, and won 39 seats. If the result of the new survey is compared with the vote at that time, the difference is about 3.8 percentage points.
This is the second consecutive test for the party after the parliamentary elections, in which it remained the second political force. At the same time, “Progressive Bulgaria“ dominates the current political picture, and the study also takes into account the realignment in the center-right space.
The decision without its own candidate
In early September, GERB decided not to nominate a candidate for president and vice president. The decision was announced as the first such decision since the party was founded in 2006. Leader Boyko Borisov previously stated that he was against the party participating with its own candidate if it had no real chance of winning.
According to BNT, the motive indicated by the leadership is that a GERB candidacy would split the votes in the center-right space and would make it easier for Iliyana Yotova. The party did not announce support for another presidential candidate pair.
This decision left GERB voters without a direct candidate in the campaign. Former Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov described it as a political mistake, while sociologist Dobromir Zhivkov commented that the party chose to pay the political price of not nominating a candidate.
What influences attitudes
In the analysis of “Market LINKS“ Zhivkov places economic concerns among the main factors for political behavior. “Prices worry people. The reasons are largely economic“, he stated.
According to data from the same study, 68% of respondents define the attacks in the Black Sea as a threat to national security, while 15% do not consider them to be such. According to Zhivkov, these issues, along with geopolitical divisions, could influence the direction of the vote.
The upcoming presidential vote will show whether GERB's drop below 10% is a temporary effect of the specific campaign and the lack of its own candidate, or a signal of a more permanent change in electoral support. Only parliamentary elections would yield a directly comparable result for the party.
Sources: btvnovinite.bg, bntnews.bg