The exit poll data of the sociological agency “Trend“ on the second round of the presidential elections outline clearly pronounced socio-demographic and political differences in support for Iliyana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov. The main dividing lines remain age, education and type of settlement.
The generational divide persists in the second round. Andrey Gyurov wins the support of 53.4% of voters between 18 and 29 years old against 38.9% for Iliyana Yotova. Among people between 30 and 39 years old, Gyurov also has an advantage - 49.8% against 43.4%. However, among voters over 40 years old, the ratio turns in favor of Yotova, with her lead increasing with age. Among people between 60 and 69 years old, she receives 60.8%, and among those over 70 - 61.9%. Looking at the structure of the two electorates, 35.4% of all those who voted for Yotova are over 60 years old, while for Gyurov this share is 25.8%. Conversely, young people under 40 years old form 34.6% of Gyurov's electorate against 22.5% for Yotova.
The division between the capital and the rest of the country remains clear. Andrey Gyurov has a significant advantage in Sofia with 59.3% against 37.4% for Iliyana Yotova. In the regional centers, however, Yotova has an advantage with 54.6% against 40.5%. Her lead is greatest in small towns, where she receives 61.8% against 33.5% for Gyurov. In the villages, the ratio is also in her favor - 55.1% vs. 36.1%. Nearly half (46.5%) of all Yotova voters live in regional centers, and another 39.8% – in small towns and villages. For Gyurov, 27.4% of the electorate is concentrated in the capital, while for Yotova this share is 13.7%. The data confirms that Sofia remains Gyurov's main stronghold, while Yotova has stronger positions in the rest of the country.
Education continues to be a dividing line, although not as clear as age and place of residence. Among voters with higher education, Yotova receives 50.2% vs. 46% for Gyurov. Among people with secondary education, her lead is significantly greater – 56% vs. 37.2%. At the same time, 58.1% of all voters for Gyurov have higher or semi-higher education, while for Yotova this share is 50.6%. This shows that despite Yotova's advantage among university graduates in the runoff, highly educated people continue to occupy a larger relative share in Gyurov's electorate.
Iliyana Yotova managed to attract over 70% of Kostadin Kostadinov and Ivelin Mihaylov's voters from the previous week. It should be borne in mind that slightly more than half of Kostadin Kostadinov's voters in the first round participated in the runoff. Among Radostin Vassilev's voters, the picture is different - 45.6% support Gyurov, and 38.9% - Yotova. The data show that 76.9% of those who voted for GERB-SDF in the parliamentary elections in April support Gyurov in the runoff, as do slightly more than two-thirds of MRF voters. Among Gyurov's voters, nearly one-fifth (19.8%) of those who voted for him supported GERB-SDF in April, and another 6.4% - MRF. Looking at the structure of the two electorates, 57% of all those who voted for Yotova supported “Progressive Bulgaria“ in April, and another 8.8% voted for “Vazrazhdane“ and 7.3% - for BSP - United Left. This outlines different political configurations behind the two candidates - a stronger concentration around “Progressive Bulgaria“ with Yotova and more diverse party support with Gyurov.
Over half of the voters had a pre-formed decision for the run-off. A total of 52.3% stated that they had decided who to support even before the start of the campaign, 18.6% - during the campaign, and 18% made their decision between the two rounds. Another 8.4% made their choice on election day itself. Among those who voted for Yotova, 54.6% had made their decision before the campaign, while for Gyurov this share was 52.8%. Between the two rounds, 18.8% of Yotova's voters and 15.9% of Gyurov's voters made their decision.
The comparison between the two rounds shows that although the main socio-demographic divisions remain, significant changes are also observed in the profiles of the two electorates. The change is most pronounced among highly educated voters. While in the first round Andrey Gyurov had an advantage among them with 39% against 31.7% for Iliyana Yotova, in the run-off the ratio is reversed - 50.2% for Yotova against 46% for Gyurov. A change is also observed in the capital. Although Gyurov maintains his clear advantage in Sofia, the gap between the two candidates narrows from 29.3 percentage points in the first round to 21.9 points in the second. At the same time, the share of Sofia residents among Gyurov's voters decreases from 31.8% to 27.4%, indicating that in the second round, support for Gyurov is less concentrated in the capital.