Recognition, sanctions, two-state solution: In recent weeks, and in particular at the UN General Assembly in New York this week, states have made their positions on Israel and the Palestinians clear. While calls for a Palestinian state are gaining support, the EU is failing to speak with one voice. This was reported by the European Newsroom – a platform for cooperation between 23 European news agencies, including BTA.
European Council President Antonio Costa said earlier this week that a majority of EU member states now recognize a Palestinian state. “There is only one way forward – the two-state solution. A secure and recognized state of Israel. An independent, democratic, viable state of Palestine. Living together“, he commented on the platform “Ex“ (X).
The EU is divided on the recognition of the Palestinian state. France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Portugal and Malta have joined the list of EU countries that have recognized the State of Palestine. Sixteen of the 27 EU member states have made this decision in several waves: Poland, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Cyprus did so in the 1980s. So has Czechoslovakia – today divided into the Czech Republic and Slovakia – but post-Soviet Czech governments have not recognized a Palestinian state. Sweden did so in 2014, and Slovenia, Spain and Ireland in 2024.
Australia, Britain, Canada and Portugal also recognized the Palestinian state at the UN this week, putting pressure on Israel – and its main backer: the United States, amid the escalating intensity of the war in Gaza.
French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday was among the latest major figures to recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations, sparking a wave of Western moves aimed at countering Israel's move to take the landmark - if symbolic - step. "The time for peace has come, because we are seconds away from missing the moment," Macron told the General Assembly.
Portugal's recognition came after weeks of consultations between the government, the political parties represented in parliament and the president. Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel said: "It is time, more than urgent, to take the necessary steps to achieve peace," adding that he hoped the recognition would be accompanied by an end to clashes between the Israeli military and Hamas rebels.
Poland has maintained a consistent position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, emphasizing the Palestinians' right to a state. Warsaw recognized Palestine in the late 1980s and has consistently advocated a two-state solution. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski has repeatedly stressed that "nothing should happen without the participation of the Palestinians themselves", arguing that regional stability requires their full participation in the political process.
Post-Soviet special cases: A complex situation
Some Central and Eastern European countries that recognized the Palestinian state in the 1980s, being part of the Soviet bloc, are now closer to the positions of the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, such as Hungary.
The then Czechoslovakia recognized Palestine during the Soviet era, but the current Czech government sees things differently.
It supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, this can only be achieved through direct negotiations between the two sides, which will not be possible as long as the Gaza Strip is controlled by the terrorist movement “Hamas“, the Foreign Ministry said. “The Czech Republic has not recognized the Palestinian state and does not plan to do so now“, the statement added.
Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky also said he did not agree with the conclusions of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territories that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. The European Commission itself is divided on the issue. It distanced itself from remarks by Commissioner Teresa Ribera, who said in early September: “The genocide in Gaza reveals Europe's inability to act and speak with one voice“.
Some EU members remain firmly on guard. The Bulgarian government, for example, has not yet issued an official statement on the matter.
Who is refusing to participate?
Eleven EU member states remain opposed, insisting that an agreement on the two-state solution must first be reached before a Palestinian state can be recognized.
In Europe, Germany and Italy are among the countries with the most serious objections. At this stage, the government in Berlin has no plans to follow suit with recognition, although it is a strong supporter of the two-state solution. For Germany, recognition should come at the end of the peace process, Foreign Minister Johann Wadeful told reporters in New York. "But this process must start now," he insisted.
He sharply criticized Israel's actions and stressed that this long-standing conflict cannot be resolved with "terror, destruction and death."
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani supported Italy's position that Rome is not ready to recognize the state of Palestine. "Recognizing a state without first creating the conditions for its establishment will have no effect other than to push back peace," he told parliament earlier this month.
Croatia is another of the opponents. There is disagreement on the issue between the president and the government, which jointly decide on foreign policy issues. President Zoran Milanovic said in New York on Monday that Croatia should recognize a Palestinian state, stressing that it is not a prize for the Palestinians but their right.
But recognition, while a historic moment, is unlikely to change the facts on the ground. "Unless backed up by concrete measures, recognizing Palestine as a state risks becoming a distraction from the reality, which is the erasure of Palestinian life in their homeland," said Max Rodenbeck, director of the Israel-Palestine Project. of the International Crisis Group.
Romain Le Boeuf, a professor of international law at the University of Aix-Marseille in southern France, said: “Recognition does not mean that a state has been created, nor does the absence of recognition prevent a state from existing.” While recognition carries largely symbolic and political weight, three-quarters of countries say “that Palestine meets all the necessary conditions to be a state,” he said.
Netanyahu has vowed not to allow a Palestinian state, and far-right members of his cabinet have threatened to annex the West Bank to make a state impossible.
When is a sanction really a sanction?
It’s not just about recognizing a Palestinian state – The EU is also conflicted about imposing sanctions on Israel for its behavior in Gaza, and if so, to what extent this conflict is.
The war in the Gaza Strip erupted in October 2023, when Israel launched a military offensive in response to an attack by the terrorist movement “Hamas“ in which gunmen killed 1,200 people in southern Israel and took 251 others hostage.
More than 65,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks in the “Hamas“-controlled Gaza Strip since the start of the war, according to the latest figures from the “Hamas“-controlled Ministry of Health.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in her State of the Union address to the European Parliament earlier this month, proposed several measures, including removing Israel's free trade benefits with the EU and sanctioning radical Israeli politicians. The pressure for effective sanctions has intensified in the weeks before, but for now the Commission President can do nothing more.
The lines outlined follow a similar pattern to the debate on the state aid, with Germany opposed: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said his government wanted to find a position on Von der Leyen's proposal only by the next informal EU summit in early October.
The positions of other member states are moving towards a tougher stance against Israel.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez expressed his full agreement with the Commission's proposals for sanctions, after Spain called for the EU's association agreement with Israel to be suspended for a year. He stressed that defeating terrorism cannot be achieved by indiscriminate attacks on the civilian population in Gaza.
The Italian foreign minister said his country was in favor of sanctions against extremist Israeli ministers and settlers as well as the extremist terrorist group “Hamas“. The opposition, as well as protesters, demanded tougher consequences for Israel's actions.
The Swedish government has become increasingly critical of Israel's actions in Gaza and supports a temporary suspension of the trade agreement as well as EU sanctions against ministers and settlers. Sweden is also considering changing its legislation to be able to introduce unilateral sanctions, which is currently not possible. “We need to start thinking about alternatives if we are repeatedly deterred from taking stricter measures (in the council)“, Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergaard said in August.
Slovenia is also among the EU member states that have been calling for some time for the EU to impose sanctions on Israel. In the absence of an EU-level agreement, it has taken some bilateral measures against Israel, including declaring ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich persona non grata. At the end of July, it was the first EU country to impose an arms embargo on Israel, banning all imports and exports of weapons to and from Israel, as well as the transit of weapons destined for Israel through its territory.
More member states may be tempted to go their own way on sanctions if the EU fails to unite on the issue.