By 2029, Russia may be able to attack NATO, warn high-ranking military officials in Germany. What is this prediction based on?
"We should not believe that Putin will stop at the borders of Ukraine," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said back in June 2024. "We must be ready for war by 2029. "We must rely on intimidation to prevent the worst from happening," ARD recalls his words at the time.
This was the first time that a representative of the German government warned so unequivocally about a possible war between Russia and NATO, while naming specific time frames, the German public media notes. Since then, the warning has been repeated repeatedly by representatives of the Bundeswehr - that by 2029 Vladimir Putin will be able to dare to attack NATO.
Why exactly 2029?
Where did this prediction, which is now being mentioned more and more often, come from? And why exactly 2029?
Before his statement in June 2024, German Defense Minister Pistorius held consultations with high-ranking military officials. According to ARD, a threat analysis prepared in 2023, i.e. the previous year, was considered during these consultations. It states that Russia will probably be able to wage a large-scale war with NATO in the next three to five years. In that case, however, it would be 2028, not 2029, ARD notes.
The Bundeswehr and the German foreign intelligence service BND probably quickly noticed that the analysis from the previous year had clearly been used incorrectly. But the mention of 2029 to the public was already a fact, and the Ministry of Defense preferred not to correct it. The recommendation from now on was to use the wording "by the end of the decade".
When asked about this, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Defense replied: "We generally do not make statements on matters related to internal work processes". But what is the basis for the analysis that the threat from Russia to NATO could become a reality in the coming years?
NATO's analysis
The assessment is based on "national and international intelligence information from intelligence and public sources", the spokeswoman added. "The situation assessment and threat analysis are constantly updated and supplemented. However, I cannot provide more information for security reasons."
The ARD has established that the position of Defense Minister Pistorius and a number of other Bundeswehr representatives is based on a NATO threat analysis prepared in 2023 by a working group within the Alliance. About a third of NATO countries, especially those with intelligence satellites, participated in it. The working group analyzed the Russian defense industry, the military economy, and the reorganization of the Russian army.
How many weapons and ammunition are produced by Russian factories? How much old material is still in warehouses? How are sanctions affecting the military economy? How big are the losses in Ukraine and how is the recruitment of new soldiers going? These are the questions that the experts addressed, who, in addition to publicly available data, also evaluated intelligence information, especially from satellite images.
Ammunition, missiles, military bases
The conclusion: in the coming years, Russia will not only be able to compensate for personal and material losses in Ukraine, but also to rearm. In addition, large quantities of ammunition and missiles are accumulating in warehouses, which are not needed at the front for the time being. Moscow is doing this largely thanks to support from China, Iran and North Korea, writes ARD.
Added to this is information gathered by satellites: the Russian military is building new bases in the western part of the country along the border with Finland and the Baltic states, and is also modernizing existing facilities, including nuclear weapons bases. At the same time, modernizations and expansions are being carried out at military bases in Belarus, where Moscow apparently intends to deploy more tactical nuclear weapons. Rail connections are also being expanded there so that in the event of war, ballistic missiles can be ready within half an hour. That is the extent of military intelligence so far, ARD points out.
What does German foreign intelligence say?
The intelligence services are not enthusiastic about the forecast of a possible Russian attack. On the one hand, because accurate predictions in this regard could not be serious - there are too many options and dynamics, for example, in relation to the course of the war against Ukraine or the attitude of the Trump administration towards NATO, the German public media outlet points out and recalls that BND analysts have made mistakes in their predictions in the past, for example in relation to the capture of Kabul by the Taliban in August 2021 or with their statement in 2012 that the Assad regime in Syria was in its final phase.
On the other hand, the analysis of Russian military capabilities does not take into account something crucial - the intentions of the Putin regime. Who could know now whether the Kremlin will start a conventional war with NATO next year or in 2029? Still, Putin is banking on surprises.
Economic pressure is growing
Meanwhile, economic pressure in Russia is growing, Ukrainian drone attacks on the oil industry are leading to a rise in fuel prices in the country, and the recruitment of new soldiers is no longer taking place at the same pace as a year ago. However, it is not clear whether Russia would refrain from a large-scale conflict with NATO.
As early as November 2024, the then head of German foreign intelligence, Bruno Kahl, warned that there was intelligence information according to which high-ranking military officials in Moscow were considering testing Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Current developments rather confirm these predictions.