While Europe imposed its will on the world for centuries, is the opposite now happening? Dimitar Bechev, director of the "Dahrendorf" programme at the Centre for European Studies at the University of Oxford, developed the popular concept of the "race for Europe" to show how the Old Continent is now a victim of great powers, from China to the United States and Russia.
He has a book on the subject to be published next year. Since the new American national security strategy no longer hides its hostility towards Europe, considered to be engulfed in "civilizational decline", in an interview with the French daily L'Express, Dimitar Bechev examines this text in perspective, highlighting the contradictions between the different factions of Trump supporters, with Trump himself at the center, who is more unpredictable than ever.
The researcher also analyzes the completely different threats posed by Russia and China. If Europe wants to become an active participant, not a passive object, in international relations, he believes that it must increase its defense budget, implement Mario Draghi's economic recommendations and develop strategic relations with its close neighbors.
L'EXPRESS: : Your concept of "race for Europe" is increasingly being cited by experts - from Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev to Financial Times columnist Gideon Rahman. What do you mean?
DIMITAR BECHEV: Europe has transformed itself from a decision-maker or initiator of events into an object of international politics. The European Union, like the United Kingdom, is in a defensive position. This is very different from the 1990s and 2000s, which I consider to be the "European peak" - a period of enlargement and deepening of the EU.
L'EXPRESS: When did the turning point come?
DIMITAR BECHEV: The global economic crisis of 2008 was a turning point. The return of Vladimir Putin to power in 2012, after the "Medvedev period", was also a turning point. Similarly, in Turkey, it was the failure of the EU accession negotiations and the authoritarian evolution of the Erdogan regime. In China, Xi Jinping's coming to power in 2013 also marked a turning point. Thus, there was a key period between 2008 and 2013.
L'EXPRESS: Historically, this notion of "race for Europe" implies a complete reversal of the European imperialist period. Now Europe itself will be the target of external predators...
DIMITAR BECHEV: Yes, although this point of view needs to be clarified. Ukraine is a good example. The fact that after the last enlargement in 2004, the European Union reached the borders of Ukraine has strengthened the motivation of Ukrainians to join. They want to be part of this system. This, by the way, has provoked a violent response from Russia. Today we see that the attractiveness of the EU as an economic market, but also as a safe space, remains high. So there has not been a complete historical turnaround. But the global environment has become much less favorable for us. The main players, especially the United States under Donald Trump and, of course, China and Russia, are much more hostile than in the past.
L'EXPRESS: Under Donald Trump, the United States seems to be losing interest in Europe in military terms, while at the same time declaring its ideological influence and support for "patriotic" parties, as seen in the new American National Security Strategy.
DIMITAR BECHEV: There are different factions in the Trump camp that are moving in different directions. There are isolationists who want to reduce all commitments, especially military ones, to Europe. There are ideologues who want to spread their revolution and see the triumph of the far right in Europe.
Their views are reflected in this new national security strategy, which declares a desire to see the emergence of multiple far right regimes modeled after Trump's. But there remains a more traditional republican right wing that still believes in the Western alliance. They were much more influential in the first Trump administration, less so today.
And in the middle is Trump himself, who can go either way. He has personal relationships with many European leaders, and those leaders themselves are trying to maintain them. Macron is a good example. Despite all their differences, I think they have managed to establish personal relationships. Keir Starmer too. Trump has even become an asset to the Labour Party, which was losing popularity. His official visit to the UK has given a boost to the government, which otherwise adheres to center-left views.
This shows that Trump has a significant personal factor, capable of prevailing over global ideological considerations.
L'EXPRESS: Russia is the world's largest military predator. Europe seems to be excluded from the discussions between the great powers on the war in Ukraine...
DIMITAR BECHEV: Russia's ultimate goal is to reshape the European order in its own image and likeness. It may not have the means, but it certainly has the intention and the ambition. The destruction of the European Union as a set of supranational institutions, the expulsion of Americans from Europe, the return to a world of nation states and great powers - this is a very radical project. This vision is not shared by China, which has other ambitious plans.
At the moment, it is clear that time is on Putin's side. He is negotiating with the United States, which allows him to buy time, while avoiding talking to the Europeans. Even during the Minsk talks, when Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel were involved, Moscow was already hoping for a separate line of communication with the Obama administration and that the major world powers could solve European problems among themselves. This is happening now with Trump.
Putin is trying to seize as much territory as possible in Ukraine and even influence political changes in Kiev. But he is keeping his options open. If there is a peace agreement with the United States, he will probably accept it. This is a strategic opportunity for him.
L'EXPRESS: Economically, the most serious challenge for Europe undoubtedly comes from China, although Putin's energy blackmail does not seem to have worked...
DIMITAR BECHEV: The idea that Russian gas can be a "weapon" is exaggerated. Ultimately, European countries adapted their energy policies to the situation after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Economically, we Europeans tend to go too far in both directions. At the beginning of the new century, the goal was to make Europe the most competitive market in the world. Today, we are seen as incompetent and useless.
Despite structural problems related to demography, technology and innovation, Europe still has a lot to offer. There are companies in the digital sector that are competitive. However, as the Draghi report shows, European countries have markets that are too small to have access to capital and to stimulate innovation. This is the key.
We suffer from fragmentation and a lack of scale in our economies. We can also say that we have the strictest regulations regarding these new technologies. The European Commission recently fined X €120 million. But I am not sure if this strategy still works.
If Europe does not innovate and compete on equal terms with China or the United States in the field of artificial intelligence, to what extent will it be able to maintain its position as a regulator in the face of these economic powers? This is the main challenge in the coming decades.
L'EXPRESS: To what extent is China's industrial power a threat?
DIMITAR BECHEV: Germany has a key role in this. German car companies are losing market share in China, in other countries, and now in Europe, due to Chinese technological pressure. This has consequences for the rest of the European economy, especially for all car suppliers based in Central Europe. The challenge is also huge in terms of the industries of the future: green technologies, biotechnology, batteries, quantum computing...
If China prevents European companies from developing, this is a serious problem. Beijing claims that Europe, by taking a tougher stance towards it, is simply slavishly following the American line. But if China has industrial overcapacity and threatens European industry, this is a key issue for our prosperity. But if China has industrial overcapacity and threatens European industry, this is a key issue for our prosperity. This has nothing to do with the United States.
L'EXPRESS: Are the parliamentary elections in Hungary in April 2026 decisive for the future of the European Union? We know, for example, that there is more Chinese investment in Hungary than in France, Germany and the United Kingdom combined...
DIMITAR BECHEV: Hungary is becoming a symbolic country, especially for the MAGA movement in the United States. The fact that there can be an illiberal state within a democratic union is politically significant. Therefore, these are key elections that could change the balance of power in Hungary or, conversely, set it back even further in terms of democracy.
However, as far as Chinese influence is concerned, I doubt that these elections will have a significant impact. Whichever party wins in Budapest, it will not question these economic commitments to China. For Russia, however, this is a key issue, since Hungary has the right of veto.
However, Viktor Orbán's defeat will not change everything, given the tensions between Hungary and Ukraine on economic and agricultural issues. In any case, these are important elections because, despite its size and geographical location, Hungary exercises disproportionate influence on a range of issues, from Ukraine to the United States, including decision-making in Brussels.
L'EXPRESS: How can we resist this "race for Europe"?
DIMITAR BECHEV: France was right to emphasize strategic autonomy. It is certainly easier said than done, but we are now seeing the beginnings of it. In my book, I outline three possible answers. The first is to strengthen our deterrence capacity, especially with regard to Russia. It is obvious that we need to increase our defense budgets, and Europe needs to become a military player, both at the level of member states and collectively. The second answer is Mario Draghi's agenda: consolidating our common market and strengthening institutions to create more internal resources and economic capacity.
Finally, in an increasingly hostile world, we need to deepen our ties with the countries on the periphery of the European Union, including the United Kingdom. We also need to be pragmatic with Turkey. Erdogan's regime is not in line with our values, but unfortunately, this is the world we live in today. It is no coincidence that European governments remain extremely cautious about the repression and imprisonment of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.
Strategic logic forces us to move even closer to Turkey, especially in the military sphere, but not only there. Erdogan wants closer economic ties on his own terms, but he has no intention of directly challenging Europe. We are forced to support authoritarian regimes. This is already happening with African countries on migration. We do it in Azerbaijan for energy reasons. The European political community created by Macron after the invasion of Ukraine illustrates this strategy of co-optation.
Let's try to build a coalition to get closer to our neighbors. Finally, on a more global level, the question is whether Europe can recreate an alliance with like-minded countries, such as Canada, Australia or Japan. Their influence is also declining in this world dominated by great powers. Is the United States indispensable? Maybe we can do without them.
L'EXPRESS: Emmanuel Macron told The Economist magazine last year that our Europe "is mortal"...
DIMITAR BECHEV: In fact, I'm starting my next book with this very quote (laughs). Macron is a politician who likes to provoke in order to push his agenda. It was the same with NATO, which was in a state of "brain death". But we saw that Russia brought the Atlantic Alliance back to life.
Emmanuel Macron is winning the battle of ideas on strategic autonomy. But will we be able to mobilize citizens? France knows this all too well: you can have the right strategic vision, but if you are weak at home, you cannot achieve much. The same problem applies to the United Kingdom.
L" EXPRESS: How important are the French presidential elections in 2027 for Europe?
DIMITAR BECHEV: If Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella win, we still do not know whether they will move closer to the center. A scenario similar to what happened in Italy, like Meloni's, could happen. By pursuing a populist economic agenda, the National Assembly is becoming increasingly attractive to big business.
In any case, the stakes in this presidential election are very high, because France is a major player in the EU ecosystem. Hungary is one thing. France and Germany are quite another.