The US aircraft carrier "Lincoln" is in the region around Iran. Flights to Israel have been suspended. Tensions are rising. The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran, Gen. Mohammad Bakpour, claims that "the finger is on the trigger".
Tehran warns that "any attack will be met with a full-scale response" and also with "don't even try". And there is no mention of protests, arrests and killings, which were mostly reported in the Western press. In Iran, there is talk of all-out war if there is an attack. And Tel Aviv is having a hard time hiding its concern about a preemptive strike by Iran.
Many analyses by leading Western observers write that "preparations for an operation against Iran have reached a critical stage". It is possible, but Trump has a habit of taking a step back if reactions among allies, like-minded people or simply supporters have a reserved, even critical opinion about threats for certain military operations. Even when Israel openly says that "we have completed our preparations for an American attack". They are talking about "a large-scale comprehensive attack", which will include Iranian air defense systems, command centers, Iranian nuclear program facilities and missile platforms, of course. Tehran claims that they are "fully prepared for the worst-case scenario", but they do not hide "that the level of alarm "has reached its peak". Somehow they don't believe that this will be a total war, and they assume that the Americans, with their accumulated military equipment, only foresee a "limited conflict".
They are insinuating that "there is no other choice but to respond with all the options that a country has when it is under a continuous military threat". The head of the Revolutionary Guard's aerospace forces, Gen. Mousavi, is also joining in, with "Trump talks a lot, but he must be sure that our response will be on point". Whatever rhetoric is used on both sides of the barricade, it is clear that there are security concerns in Tel Aviv and there is even talk of a "misjudgement scenario". Because if Iran has decided that the US will attack, then a preemptive strike is inevitable. It seems that Washington will prefer a military option instead of negotiations, and this holds surprises. Iran is not Venezuela or Cuba after all. And despite the claims that Moscow and Beijing did not help, "due to impossibility", their ally in the so-called 12-day war. Still, Mossad is aware that Russia and China do not advertise their actions. They prefer, for their own reasons and policies, to act behind the scenes. The fact that Iran has endured at this stage is eloquent. Even during the so-called "color revolution" with the mass protests, as they called it in Tehran.
About these recent mass protests in Iran, Hakan Fidan, Turkey's foreign minister, says "interpreting the reaction to economic difficulties as a direct demand for the fall of the regime is not always realistic". There were many other "interrelated dynamics". He is convinced that "a friend always tells the bitter truth" and as a friend of Iran "we said what needed to be said". "We do not want a new war in our region, but there are indications that Israel is seeking an attack on Iran" Fidan stated in an NTV broadcast the day before. And this is exactly where the question of what is happening in Syria comes in, because Iran's role in this country was leading during the time of Assad. And today Tehran has been pushed out of there with the help of Ankara and the support, they say, of the US. With the active participation of Israel. A complex policy with intertwined interests and a lot of behind-the-scenes. With consequences for the entire Middle East.
Over the past 15 days in Syria, the myth of the power of the Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, and the military formations of the Syrian Kurds, YPG, has definitely collapsed. In Moscow they say that "the Americans are done with the Kurds", which is truly a catastrophe for them. Abandoned by their ally, the United States, disarmed and confused amid streams of empty promises of their own state entity if they fight at Washington's expense with the "Islamic State", now the Syrian Kurds are left to the whims of the rulers in Damascus. The Syrian army has driven them out of nearly 1/3 of the territory where the Kurds live in Syria. It started with two neighborhoods of Aleppo, which in Turkey is said to be "an ancient Turkish city since the time of the Ottoman Empire". Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor followed, where the oil and gas fields in Syria are located, which are now under the control of the Damascus army. They reached Hasakah and the dream of a Rojava state evaporated.
The Russians emphasize that the reason for the tragedy of the Syrian Kurds with these latest events is "a poorly chosen ally, omnipotent, but always acting only in its own interest and betraying those who believed in the promises of support". The Syrian Kurds are participants in the overthrow of Assad, and in Iran the Kurds were among the protesters against the ayatollahs' regime. They are 40 million in four countries, but only in Iraq do they have autonomy - Iraqi Kurdistan with the capital Erbil. Ankara fears that the dominoes could creep to Turkey, where the Kurds are about 20 million. With the same dreams.
This explains Ankara's activity not only in the overthrow of Assad, the conduct of at least 4 military operations in Syria, the positioning of Turkish military units in the country with a Turkish order for the organization of population management, the role in the rule of Damascus with Sharaa at the head, but also in the current actions against the SDF and YPG with Turkish military formations and experts. Despite the official denial of the Turkish authorities. A ceasefire agreement was signed for days, but it was extended by another 15, because it takes time to transfer jihadists from the "Islamic State" to Iraq from the territories controlled by the SDF and YPG. While in fact the prisons were open during the fighting between the Damascus army and the SDF. It is normal to assume that the jihadists left in the direction of their homelands. In most cases, to Central Asia or the Uyghur regions in China. As they say - let Moscow and Beijing think about it. Some time ago, Washington had set conditions for Sharaa to cope and force foreign jihadists to leave Syria. It is already underway. At this stage, they say, the structures of the so-called Rojava are being dismantled, and US funding has also been suspended, i.e. salaries are not paid to Kurdish fighters in Syria. There are no supplies of weapons and equipment. The compulsion is to join Sharaa's army.
Their objection is that they number more than 100,000, and Sharaa had only a few tens of thousands. How did they drive them out of their lands then? Apparently, united foreign forces acted. Their leader Abdi from Sharaa was promised that he would become deputy minister if he fulfilled Damascus' demands. In practice, the Syrian Kurds are promised fewer rights than they had under Assad. They only have the right to use their language, to observe their traditions, and to have their national holiday, Nowruz, recognized in Syria. The Russians cannot help but use these facts as a trump card when laying out their cards in the Middle East, including Syria. In Moscow, the Kurds even had their own representation some time ago, but today those times are taboo.
Western commentators claim that Washington has accepted the role of Ankara and Damascus in the recent events in the country, because otherwise they risked losing their broader interests in the region. That is why they have withdrawn support for the SDF and YPG and have advised Israel to be only an observer. Otherwise, Tel Aviv has long demonstrated support for the Syrian Kurds and their aspirations for autonomy or federalization of Syria after the overthrow of Assad. Today, Tom Barak, the US ambassador to Ankara and responsible for the processes in Syria, says that "we do not owe them the right to create an independent state. There will be no free Kurdistan, no free state of Rojava."
What we owe them is to offer them a reasonable path in the transition process to the new administration in Damascus." There were other alternatives if this was not accepted. It is not acceptable for the US to have a confrontation in the region. Moreover, they will distribute Syrian oil, gas and rare earth elements that are in the areas of the Syrian Kurds. And in agreement with Damascus, i.e. without any trouble, because they promised Sharaa strengthening of power in exchange for full cooperation on the issues of Israel, Lebanon, Iran. Sharaa would work on "the issues of the Eastern Mediterranean and Cyprus". He also gave assurances that he would be "all the way with Tel Aviv", i.e. he would normalize relations and cooperate on the Golan Heights and Mount Hebron. Whatever that means. Territory against power and security? The Kurds are being offered integration into the "new order of Syria", but will this be permanent or will the situation remain delicate and fragile?
Through Barzani, leader of Iraqi Kurdistan, Abdi, leader of the Syrian Kurds, has sought help from the Pope due to the massacre of civilians in "Rojava". Also from Tel Aviv, because there was support from there until recently, but the situation is different. A peace treaty is being sought between Damascus and Tel Aviv on Israel's terms. The cards are being rearranged in the Middle East, and Trump has other interests as well. He plays on many chessboards. He believes that by protecting Israeli interests in Syria, Tel Aviv will become more accommodating towards Gaza. And he will keep his radar base in Hebron. While Damascus hopes that after a treaty with Israel, honey and oil will flow to Syria like Jordan did when the treaty between Amman and Tel Aviv was signed in 1994.
There is talk of lasting peace in Syria, and Ankara is "drinking champagne" because of the collapse of the Syrian Kurds. But there are also voices that there will soon be a new civil war in the country, because the division between ethnicities and religions, the poor state of the economy and playing to someone else's whistle lead to discontent, which in this country is resolved through military action. Assad should have realized it, and Sharaa is clearly facing it.