Despite Iran's nationwide protests and years of external pressure, there is still no sign of a split in the Islamic Republic's security elite that could bring down one of the world's most resilient governments.
Increasing pressure on Iran's clerical rulers, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened military action over Tehran's brutal crackdown on protests that followed an Israeli and U.S. bombing campaign last year against Iran's nuclear program and key officials.
But unless street unrest and foreign pressure lead to defections at the top, the elite, though weakened, is likely to hold on, two diplomats, two government officials and two senior officials told Reuters. the Middle East source and two analysts.
About 2,000 people have been killed in the protests, an Iranian official told Reuters, blaming what he called terrorists for the deaths of civilians and security personnel. Rights groups had previously reported about 600 deaths.
Iran's multi-layered security architecture, based on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij paramilitary force, which together number nearly a million, makes external coercion without internal discord extremely difficult, said Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic and expert on regional conflicts and U.S. foreign policy.
"For something like this to succeed, you have to have crowds in the streets for a much longer period of time. And there has to be a breakdown of the state. "Some segments of the state, particularly the security forces, must defect," he said.
Iran's mission to the United Nations in Geneva, the U.S. State Department and the White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent by email after business hours.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has weathered several similar unrests in the past. It is the fifth major uprising since 2009, a testament to resilience and cohesion even as the government faces a deep, unresolved internal crisis, said Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute.
To change that, protesters will need to generate enough momentum to overcome the state’s established advantages: strong institutions, a sizable electorate loyal to clerical rule, and the geographic and demographic scale of a country of 90 million people, noted Alan Ayer, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran expert.
Survival, however, does not equate to stability, analysts say. The Islamic Republic is facing one of its most serious challenges since 1979. Sanctions have strangled the economy with no clear path to recovery. Strategically, it is under pressure from Israel and the United States, its nuclear program has degraded, and its regional "Axis of Resistance" militias have been weakened by crippling losses to allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza.
Nasr said that while he did not believe the Islamic Republic had reached its "moment of collapse," it was "now in a situation of great difficulty going forward."
The protests began on December 28 in response to rising prices before turning sharply against the clerical rule. Politically, the violent crackdown has further eroded what little legitimacy the Islamic Republic has left.
The U.S.-based human rights group HRANA reported that it had confirmed the deaths of 573 people, 503 protesters and 69 security personnel. More than 10,000 have been arrested, the group said.
Iran has not released an official death toll, and Reuters has been unable to independently verify the figures.
What makes this moment special and raises the stakes, analysts say, are Trump’s explicit warnings that killing protesters could trigger U.S. intervention.
Trump will meet with senior advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a U.S. official told Reuters on Sunday. Iran has said it is keeping open lines of communication with Washington. Trump, who has said he may meet with Iranian officials, threatened tariffs on countries that trade with Iran on Monday. China is Tehran's main trading partner.
In a phone call on Saturday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the possibility of US intervention in Iran, according to an Israeli source who was present at the conversation.
Analysts say Trump's interest in the protests is likely more tactical than ideological, Salem said. The goal could be appeasement - weakening the state enough to extract concessions, such as curbs on Tehran's nuclear program, he said.
The idea of a "Venezuelan model" is gaining popularity in some circles in Washington and Jerusalem, a diplomat and three analysts said.
It envisions removing Iran’s top authority while sending a message to the rest of the state apparatus: stay put, as long as you cooperate, they said.
Applied to Iran, however, it faces formidable obstacles: a security state established for decades, deep institutional cohesion and a much larger and ethnically complex country.
Two regional officials and two analysts told Reuters that foreign military action could divide Iran along ethnic and sectarian lines, especially in the Kurdish and Sunni Baluch regions with a history of resistance.
For now, the restrictions remain. US military assets are scattered elsewhere, although diplomats have said troop deployments could change quickly.
David Makowski of the Washington Institute think tank said that if Trump acts, he expects quick and high-impact action rather than a protracted campaign - consistent with the president's preference in recent conflicts for a single decisive action rather than a ground-based deployment.
"He is looking for that one gesture that could change the game, but what is it?", Makowski said.
The options range from naval pressure on Iranian oil supplies to targeted military or cyber strikes, all of which carry serious risks.
Some measures, according to all sources, could stop short of using force, such as restoring internet access via Starlink to help protesters communicate.
"Trump sometimes uses threats to delay decisions, sometimes to deter his opponents, and sometimes to signal that he is actually preparing to intervene," said Makowski of the Washington Institute. "We just don't know yet which one is applicable in this case."