The world is waiting for what Trump will decide about Iran. The buildup of military presence in the region around the ayatollahs' state increases the likelihood of a military attack. This situation inevitably increases tensions on a global scale. In our country, some are asking questions like "not if, but when" and without a shred of concern.
In the same way, they mention the American "flying tankers" at "Vasil Levski" airport. Rejected by "Incerlik" base in Turkey, as well as by Athens and Great Britain. Otherwise, particularly close allies in NATO. There is no doubt that Tehran is on the horizon. And Trump, after the second round of negotiations in Geneva, is talking about a 10-15-day deadline that he has given Iran to accept the proposed agreement. According to Israel, "abandonment of a nuclear program, abandonment of ballistic missile production, abandonment of any support for Iranian proxy organizations in the Middle East".
And Iran is only willing to compromise on the nuclear program, i.e. for peaceful purposes. The rest is a matter of security. Trump is vaguely balancing because Israel is the major ally, but he has already admitted that "the Iranians lose wars, but never negotiations". This is Persia, and it has been in the world for more than 5 thousand years.
All this after Witkoff and Kushner-Z "juggle" with two topics /Iran and Ukraine/ and without a break, they fly in one day from the residence of the Omani ambassador in Geneva to the "Intercontinental" /five stars/ to meet with Umerov and Budanov. They talk for 3 hours at each of the meetings. Whether the Americans are deliberately overloading themselves or overestimating this team for talks with representatives of Tehran and Kiev is not very clear, but the results are "there will be new meetings".
To get to Trump's threats "if they don't agree, something very bad will happen". A second aircraft carrier, "Ford", is approaching Israel from Gibraltar. Together with "Lincoln", this is an armada that the world does not observe so often. In Tel Aviv, fingers are crossed that Trump will decide to attack Iran in order to free themselves from the eternal threat to their existence. But doubts remain whether there is a complete consensus in the American administration regarding an attack on Iran. The questions asked by experts /Atlantic Council of 19.02.26/ are such as what is the purpose of such military actions, what can Iran do in response, why is there no effective diplomatic solution before the attack, how will Iranian citizens react to an American attack, what do the allies in the region say, etc.
Questions also stand out as to whether such an attack will strengthen the positions of the United States and whether the rulers in Tehran will be eliminated, i.e. whether Ayatollah Khamenei will be eliminated. The questions give reason to believe that no matter how weak Iran presents itself, it seems unlikely that Tehran will succumb to threats and give in on fundamental issues that affect its very existence. Because "the regime has clearly decided that the loss of its missile capabilities and nuclear program is riskier than a military attack itself".
Moreover, Moscow and Beijing are doing what is the duty of every ally, especially from the BRICS. Including military maneuvers and exercises in the Strait of Hormuz these days, the so-called "Sea Security Belt" exercise. And the regional states, the Persian Gulf monarchies, allied with the US, are against a potential military attack. Including Turkey. The probability of an attack has increased, but there are also factors that can prevent it or at least limit the escalation, which could turn into a large-scale regional war.
There are signals that say that the events surrounding Iran also have an Iraqi aspect. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized this in an interview on a television show. Of course, he focused mainly on the ongoing process regarding the PKK in northern Syria, because the PKK occupies territories in Sinjar and the Gara region, and this is within the sovereign rights of Iraq. Where the main political agenda today is the formation of a new government after the elections. However, the factors that determine how the government will be formed are shaped by the restructuring of the region as a whole. And this restructuring is taking shape against the backdrop of the regime change in Damascus, the US withdrawal from Syria, the process, however incomplete, of disbanding the PKK, and the negotiations between the US and Iran.
In Iraq, discussions about who will be the new prime minister continue, even after Trump made threats about the Iraqi elections. Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the "Coalition for the Rule of Law" is a candidate to become prime minister again. He will not back down, even though he is disliked by Washington. A Shiite who does not hide his ties to Iran, and the Shiite militias themselves, thousands, in Iraq have already decided to go to Iran if the US carries out an attack. They will fight on the side of Tehran. In such a situation, the Iraqi prime minister's post is at a dead end. They say that "the US is closing the knot in the crisis" after threats from their side against the backdrop of defiant statements from Baghdad. The Iraqi government talks about an "internal matter", but Washington's sanctions tools make it difficult for Baghdad to take any action.
In Munich, at the Security Conference, Fuad Hussein, Iraq's foreign minister, said regarding the current events in Iraq that Maliki's candidacy is an internal and constitutional matter, but "Iraq is seriously considering the signals from the United States regarding the appointment of Maliki". It is impossible since Trump has already said that he is "closely following the appointment of the Iraqi prime minister". He added "we will see what happens, we have some ideas on this issue, but ultimately everyone needs the United States". For him, Maliki's return as prime minister in Iraq is "a situation that should not be allowed".
Iraq was plunged into "poverty and chaos" under Maliki's previous administration, Trump said in Truth Social. Now he would end support for Iraq if Maliki is reappointed. And at the same time, he is reducing US troops in Iraq. But the goal is actually to reduce the influence of Iranian-backed militias, limit Iran's influence in state institutions, and develop strong economic partnerships with the US. After 2003, when the US invaded Iraq, a financial mechanism was created to manage the country's oil revenues.
Iraq's oil and gas sales are managed through the Development of Iraq Fund. The revenues are transferred to accounts held at the US Federal Reserve branch in New York. The Iraqi economy is heavily dependent on dollar transfers. The mechanisms of influence are not only not new, but also effective. They are well known in Iran. Not to mention Fidan, who reminded us in an interview with CNN in Turkey 4 days ago, stating that "America has a tool for targeting and imposing sanctions on Iraq". It is clear that Maliki is not backing down, despite US threats. But if the majority in the Shiite coordination framework asked for it, he would withdraw from the candidacy for prime minister in Iraq.
There is political uncertainty in Baghdad, and Washington has appointed Tom Barrack, ambassador to Turkey, special representative for Syria and representative in Iraq. Despite his appearance in the Epstein Files. The US will certainly be closely following events in Baghdad as well, while the world awaits the decision on Iran.
The world is waiting, and Tehran is preparing for war with the US and Israel, having concluded that the fundamental differences in the negotiations are too great to be overcome. The entrances to the tunnels in Isfahan are being closed with dirt, the Telegan-2 site is being buried, large quantities of anti-ship missiles are being deployed on the coast of the Persian Gulf and on the islands of Abu Musa and Tunb, the entrances to the ballistic missile bases are being strengthened and moved to bases in the east, Ayatollah Khamenei's event program has been canceled, etc.
It's not even the calm before the storm. The storm is expected. And Sofia is busy with all-out attacks against the interim government and no one is saying who and when allowed the "flying tankers" to stay at the capital's airport. They're going to close it for certain hours. Iran's ballistic missiles have a range of over 2,000 km. Just food for thought.