The Institute for Strategies and Analyses (ISA) published its political analysis of the events in Bulgaria, Europe and the world in February 2026 under the title:
BULGARIA IN A NEW SITUATION – „RADEV“ AND „PETROKHAN“ DISPLACED THE LAYERS
THE CARETAKER GOVERNMENT OF ANDREY GYUROV – WITH A BAD START AND UNDER SIEGE
THE “PETROHAN“ CASE, WHICH EXPLODED THE SOCIETY
GERB MOBILIZES AND CONSOLIDATES
PP-DB – STRIKE ON THE NGO NETWORK
“VAZRAZDANE“ MOVES TO THE RIGHT
DPS – NO VOTER DRAINAGE, CLEAR CONSERVATIVE POSITION
THE UNITED STATES TIGHTENS THE NOOSE AROUND CUBA'S NECK
We offer you a summary of the MAIN CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS:
A strong political dynamic is underway in Bulgaria, comparable to the end of 1989 and the early years of the 1990s.
February is the third month in which political strata are clearly shifting.
The first push was in December, when protests against the budget became massive and led to the resignation of the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov.
The second was in January, when, after a long public expectation for a presidential project, Rumen Radev announced that he was resigning as president and would create a new political force.
The third came from the tragedy “Petrohan-Okolchitsa“, which began to develop sharply on February 2 and completely absorbed public attention, including because of the implanted political element.
To these three moments was added the activity of the caretaker government, which sharply entered the important topics – filed a request for the removal of Borislav Sarafov as acting prosecutor general, requested and received the resignation of the chief secretary of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, replaced all 28 regional governors with PP-DB cadres in one fell swoop, etc.
The strong dynamics in the last three months are also reflected in the
the fact that the main intrigue for the upcoming elections is shifting.
The rise of PP-DB in December and the appearance of Radev in January provoked the expectation that a battle could be waged for a constitutional majority that does not include GERB and MRF. After the “Petrohan-Okolchitsa” case, which hit the PP-DB, this hypothesis seems impossible to realize. The main political intrigue/bet now is whether the “Radev” project and the PP-DB will have a majority to form a government after the elections. There is also another key question: will they want to govern together?
There is a new player on the field, which significantly changes the party balances.
Even at the project level, a political force led by Radev has the potential to win the parliamentary elections. However, victory will not guarantee success in forming a government. “Radev” will need a coalition partner. A natural ally would be Krum Zarkov’s BSP, but for now the socialist party is below the threshold for entering the National Assembly. One of the reasons for the erosion is the “Radev“ project, towards which left-wing votes are orienting.
The big challenge facing the BSP is to become distinguishable from “Radev“ by convincing its voters of its advantages.
The personnel puzzle of the official government indicates that “Radev“ receives bonuses - mainly in the field of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and security, but PP-DB also loses from his rise. The periphery of the coalition finds an easy way to redirect itself to a force that is against the “Borisov-Peevski“ model, but at the same time does not suffer from extreme Russophobia.
It would be counterproductive for the smaller formations to hit Radev, so all their political energy is directed against PP-DB. However, with the presumption that they will not lose their vote, a significant share of voters, as a rule, turn to the winner or the sure participants in parliament. After the publication of the first estimated results, this trend seems irreversible.
With his sharp rhetoric, Radev gives the upcoming elections a fateful character. The election of a new Supreme Judicial Council and a new Prosecutor General is considered the most important step in dismantling the model. To achieve this goal, a qualified majority is necessary, which explains his reluctance to draw red lines before the elections.
There is no leak of information to the media from the political kitchen of the new project. This indicates that Radev trusts only a narrow circle and works only with them, although over the years he has managed to create his own “cohort“ by people with management experience and expertise.
We do not rule out the creation of a program government with a short horizon and new elections to be called with the expectation of a higher result and achieving a constitutional majority. Including to restore the powers of the president in the part of appointing a caretaker government.
Berlin is following Radev's views and actions with increased interest, but Radev is also courting Berlin as a traditional partner in politics and economics.
One of Radev's first meetings as a political leader was with Bulgarians in the German capital Berlin. He also gave an interview to the Berliner Zeitung, where he outlined his positions on all important topics for Bulgaria and Europe - from the euro to Trump's Peace Council and the need for more diplomacy to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.
Radev described the composition of the caretaker cabinet as party-based, with “strongly expressed party and political figures“ and referred to the “assembly“ and the constitutional changes.
His attitude towards the non-governmental sector and the parties in the PP-DB coalition, whose foundation is NGOs, positions him in the conservative and patriotic niche. PP-DB can be his temporary situational partner, but nothing more.
Radev's big goal is to govern independently, and for now the next government is expected to be a coalition.
President Iliana Yotova is forced to play in a field narrowed by the legislature.
Of the candidates for caretaker prime minister, Andrey Gyurov was the only name that was not associated in any way with the status quo, and by choosing him, Yotova gave a sign that she had heard the protests.
Expectations that Yotova will propose an extension of Radev's mandate on a copy-and-paste basis are naive. She has political experience and character, and her new style, including communication with parties, the media and society, was evident from the very first moves.
The atmosphere of “Dondukov“ 2 is more constructive and more welcoming.
Andrey Gyurov, as expected, did not receive tolerance from the parties. The exception is the PP-DB, which may put the coalition in yet another vulnerable situation, since “Gyurov“ is perceived as the PP-DB cabinet.
The coalition and the government become dependent on each other. “Gyurov“ will be attacked because of the PP-DB, which is in a campaign, and every mistake of the cabinet will become a liability for the coalition.
However, the opposite is also true - every success can bring it points.
From its very start, the government faced the prospect of being attacked non ston, and it itself started with a false start (Stoil Tsitselkov). The fact that all the new regional governors are from the PP-DB raises doubts about its impartiality.
Along the status quo-change line, the government is oriented towards change.
Along the East-West line - towards the Western world, of which Bulgaria is officially a part.
Along the conservatism-globalism line, in particular Trump-Soros, it is oriented towards the liberal values of the global world. That is, towards the ideology of Soros.
Borislav Sarafov's chair is once again becoming a hot spot, this time - before decisive elections. This will harden both parties, who will enter the battle with their entire set of tools.
The holding of fair elections is currently questionable.
Making amendments to the Electoral Code immediately before elections erodes trust in the fairness of the upcoming elections. Replacing all regional governors with party figures only - also.
The parliament, alas, has entered a time of moral agony with unprecedented language and scandalous behavior on the part of members of parliament.
The “Petrohan-Okolchitsa“ tragedy was used for a brutal crackdown on opponents in front of the cameras. Live broadcasts of the sessions of the National Assembly should seem to be marked with a warning that it is unsuitable for persons under 18 years of age.
The results of the early parliamentary elections have become dependent on the development of the investigation into the “Petrohan-Okolchitsa“ case. Any turn of events can affect the trust in some political forces and sink others.
The tragedy has attracted unprecedented public attention for a number of reasons. One of them - extreme politicization, intensified by the upcoming elections.
The development of the case, which has proliferated in the form of a variety of versions, has clearly shown two things: first - the investigators made clear communication errors; second - trust in them is extremely low.
Over time, the questions did not decrease, but increased. The blank spaces that remain without convincing explanations are another explanation for the peak of distrust and conspiracy theories.
A topic that is about to develop with even greater force: which activities can the state transfer to non-governmental organizations? Should it even delegate its responsibilities to private entities, which in turn influence state policy?
For over nine years - since its establishment - GERB has established itself as a party characterized by two states - rise and stability. Resilience has been the hallmark of the party in the last five years of political crisis, which has changed its form but not its content.
We can draw one good and one bad news from these five years: although fiercely attacked, GERB remains an influential force; support has shrunk to a solid core of about 600,000 votes, and there is no sign of a growth trend.
GERB and Borisov will invest all their energy and experience in order to play the role of the political force without which a government cannot be formed. This is a role that is new for them and they will have to adapt to it.
The Supreme Party Forum is meeting at the start of the election campaign. From this, it can be concluded that GERB will mobilize and consolidate for the upcoming elections - the most difficult in the history of the party.
The positive assessment of “Zhelyazkov“ and the achieved goals (Schengen, Eurozone, PVU) will be the foundation on which GERB's election campaign will be built.
There is also a kind of fixation of Borisov on Radev, which may take away from the necessary election energy.
The PP-DB parties are suffering a serious blow, which is reflected in the outflow of electoral support.
The coalition, which after the protests declared its ambition to win a majority, is now in a situation to fight for third place. This is a very serious change in its status.
The “Petrohan-Okolchitsa“ case and its crude politicization hardened the core, but scattered the periphery because of the real problems it revealed. The effect would not have been so noticeable if the protest vote had not seen an easy way to redirect itself – went towards the “Radev“ project.
PP-DB found themselves with a government very close to them, but in isolation and with a negative trend. The coalition became hostage to two circumstances - the development of the “Petrohan-Okolchitsa“ case and the actions of the caretaker government.
The battle to restore the power of the nation-state goes through the battle against the NGOs funded by Soros. This makes the positions of PP-DB vulnerable, although they have the support of a significant public share in their battle against the “conquered state“.
Pressed by the “Radev“ project, “Vazrazhdane“ is radicalizing.
The behavior of leader Delyan Peevski is selective and concentrated.
What does Peevski achieve with the consistent implementation of tours with young people at the Museum of the Assembly? First, he keeps the topic of the “assembly“ current – a concept that has become a symbol of the PP-DB's double-bottom policy. Second, he stresses his opponents with the support he receives from young people.
With his attitude towards the caretaker government, Peevski categorically reaffirmed the party's positioning as a conservative formation that opposes the ideology and practices of Soros – expanding influence and imposing neoliberal views on a global scale through a network of non-governmental organizations.
As a party with experience and traditions, the BSP unmistakably recognized the danger of not entering the next parliament, its instinct for self-preservation kicked in, and the congress elected a recognizable young face as its leader who identifies with change.
At the same time, the BSP is faced with the challenge of finding its own style in competition with Radev. If we apply the "own-foreign" system, his project is both "own" and "foreign", as it threatens him existentially.
We expect some kind of resolution after the ideology of the project is clarified. So far, it can be predicted that Radev's party will strive to control the entire center, to position itself in the center-left similar to GERB, which controls the center-right. In this case, the BSP has the option of moving even further to the left, and attempts to do so are already discernible.
The problem is no longer what the BSP will connect with the "Radev" project, but what will distinguish it.
Eight deputies from the BSP's PG demonstratively did not support President Yotova's veto on the Electoral Code and came into conflict with the position of the new leader and the new EB. The group split in the vote. There is also an attempt by prominent figures who will not be on the red lists to shame Krum Zarkov. The damage they are causing to the party, however, is enormous. The reason for the voter exodus is also the line of collaboration with the status quo.
„There are such people“ or the „Slavi Trifonov“ project is heading towards its inglorious finale.
As showmen and chalga performers, the people from Slavi Trifonov's circle imposed the „values“ among the young of the snot, as politicians have disgusted entire generations with politics.
ITN fight their opponents with ugly insults, not with policies.
MECH announced its independent participation in the elections. The real chance for the group of parties with similar profiles, which are at risk of fading, is to form a pre-election coalition to increase their chances. But this seems to be just a hypothesis, because they are leading parties and even if they unite, they will most likely fall apart soon after.
The analysis was prepared by a team consisting of:
Tanya Djoeva
Institute for Strategies and Analyses
Valeria Veleva
Director of the Institute for Strategies and Analyses
Prof. Daniela Bobeva (Economics)
Simeon Nikolov (Geopolitics)
International observers:
Dr. Plamen Hristov (Energy and Politics, Greece)
Dr. Anton Panchev (Albania, Kosovo)
Here is the entire content of the analysis:
I. CONCLUSIONS AND FORECASTS
II. DOMESTIC POLITICAL DYNAMICS AND MAIN INSTITUTIONS
POSITION OF POLITICAL LAYERS – TRENDS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED, BUT THE UNKNOWN REMAINS
THE “RADEV“ PROJECT - EXPECTATIONS AND REQUESTS
PRESIDENT IOTOVA STARTS WITH A CREDIT OF TRUST
ANDREY GYUROV'S CARETTE GOVERNMENT – WITH A BAD START AND UNDER SIEGE
PARLIAMENT – TRIBUNAL OR TRIBUNAL IN THE PRE-ELECTION PERIOD. INSULTS AND SCANDALS BROKE THE INSTITUTION -
THE „PETROKHAN“ CASE, WHICH BLOWED UP SOCIETY - ISSUES, DEVELOPMENTS, PROBLEMS
III. PARTY DYNAMICS
GERB MOBILIZES AND CONSOLIDATES
PP-DB – THE STRIKE ON THE NGO NETWORK IS A STRIKE ON THE PARTIES IN THE COALITION
„VAZRAZDANE“ IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT
DPS – NO VOTER DRAINAGE, CLEAR CONSERVATIVE POSITION
BSP – NEW LEADER TRYING TO STOP EROSION
ITN – PROJECT „SLAVI“ ENDS
MECH – BORN IN THE CRISIS, GOES TOGETHER WITH THE CRISIS
MAJESTY - THE GAME IS OVER
IV. ECONOMY
FEBRUARY 2026 – THE FIRST MONTH WITHOUT THE LEVA
TARIFFS ON GOODS IMPORTED FROM THE USA – FROM CHAOS TO ENTROPY
THE ECONOMY WITHOUT A LEV
ILLUSIVE CALM ON THE BUDGET FRONT
INFLATION THAT NOBODY BELIEVES
PARTY ROLLED UP THEIR SLEEVES TO WRITE PROGRAMS
RAIN, SNOW, FULL DAMS, MORE BALANCING ENERGY
REDUCING THE ADMINISTRATIVE BURDEN IN CONNECTION WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
V. GEOPOLITICS
THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE – TRANSATLANTIC CLIMATE BAROMETER DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS MORE SECURITY
THE NUCLEAR RACE IS BACK. THE MADNESS AND DECEPTION OF POLITICIANS
THE MIDDLE EAST IS AT A CROSSROADS: THE COMPASS TOWARDS ENDLESS WAR OR PEACE IS IN THE USA
THE STRATEGIC COMPETITION BETWEEN SAUDI ARABIA AND THE UAE CARRIES RISKS OF INCREASING TENSIONS IN THE REGION
THE US TIGHTENS THE NOOSE AROUND CUBA'S NECK
VI. ENERGY AND POLITICS
The United States encapsulates the Greek-Turkish contradictions in a common geopolitical framework
VII. REGIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
GREECE – EARLY ELECTION CAMPAIGN FOR THE 2027 REGULAR ELECTIONS
ALBANIA – ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE ANTI-CORRUPTION LEGISLATION
KOSOVO – NEW GOVERNMENT, BUT DIFFICULTIES IN ELECTING A PRESIDENT
Source: epicenter.bg