The question that is most often asked these days is how long the war in Iran will last. Most experts claim that Iran will last a month.
But some are convinced that Trump simply overestimated the power of the American military or, rather, underestimated the capabilities of the ayatollahs' state. But it seems that he could not withstand the pressure from Netanyahu, and they are also telling the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Salman, that now is the time to attack. For Riyadh, a weak Iran is preferable. But not one turned into a swamp of civil war, where a bear can jump over the neighbor's fence.
In fact, Trump cannot enter the midterm elections in November without success, but fears are growing that after a week of war, he has started another "eternal war". And his image as a peacemaker worthy of the Nobel Prize has evaporated. Iran is proving to be too big, too populous, and too well-prepared to work the strategy of "decapitation and collapse". The assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei and much of Iran's elite, including senior military officers, did not lead, at least at this stage, to collapse. Iran's military machine was not destroyed in a week.
The simple decapitation of the Islamic State was not enough to collapse it. The scenario of Libya and Syria turned out to be unsuitable for Iran. There, the removal of the highest-ranking leader demolished the foundations of the state, because they were actually dictatorships. The way Iran is governed is something completely different and the country is far more institutionalized. Not based on the political power of a dictator. And if oil is the only tempting target, then some in the United States have not understood the depth of Israeli ambitions. The shadow of "Greater Israel" is not a speculation for superficial commentators.
It is clear that the military power of the United States is significantly greater than that of Iran, but the strategy that has been prepared by Tehran for this war is undoubtedly focusing on the weaknesses of those attacking it while using its own strengths. Iran has definitely expected exactly this type of attack and they say that it has turned the entire Revolutionary Guards military machine into guerrilla military teams.
The so-called "decentralized mosaic front doctrine". Without a central command with autonomous actions on previously issued orders. With mass production of cheap and sufficiently effective drones that surpass the more powerful and expensive missiles of the United States and Israel. The "Tomahawk" missiles are magnificent, as Trump says, and nothing can resist them, but in 4 days they have launched as many as in 5 years.
The American defense, as well as Israel, is overwhelmed by thousands of cheap drones, for which Iran has enough industrial capacity to continue producing them. By thousands. Several American ships are already out of action. And in addition, Tehran has demonstrated some very sophisticated ballistic missiles with which it attacks residential areas in Israel. It has destroyed a US early warning radar system at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is worth $ 1.1 billion. A serious blow, because the radar has a long range. The conclusions are that the longer this war continues, the more "the pendulum will swing towards Tehran".
There is a possibility that the war in Iran will turn into a national guerrilla war, where the Iranians will continue to strike everything they can. Including in other countries. Not to mention Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. It is a fact that the Iranian regime did not give in, but it is also clear that the pressure on Trump from within and without is growing rapidly to stop the military actions. He needs something to present as a "victory" and restart diplomacy. Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister, actually signed an agreement at the Geneva talks to abandon uranium enrichment and dilute existing stocks.
This agreement can be quickly pulled out and pointed out as a victory for Trump in order to save his face in front of the world. Because otherwise the request to Kiev to provide military experts on actions with Ukrainian-made drones for the war in Iran is a slap in the face to the image of the most powerful country in the world. As is the insistence on South Korea to return some of the "Patriot" provided to them for use in Iran. Otherwise, the so-called "Lion's Roar" really turn into deafening silence or even whining. In Washington they even call it a "special military operation". Can you hear the giggles in Moscow?
At the moment, Senator Lindsey Graham's statement that "Cuba's days are numbered" is hardly helping, because it is next. It is not clear whether the Epstein files have been forgotten, because it is assumed that this was also a goal. But the editor-in-chief, some in the West write, of the Arab newspaper Independent Arabia reported that "not all attacks on the Gulf come from Iran. The US and Israel are setting us a "trap". They are dragging the Gulf countries into the war.
Tehran claims that it is not responsible for some of the hits. They believe that this is an "Israeli attempt to sabotage regional peace and alliances between neighbors". They have concerns that Tel Aviv may have been directing such attacks from Iranian territory. Therefore, Iranian forces were activated to search for drone depots that belong to Israel. At the same time, Tucker Carlson said that it is possible that Tel Aviv, through the Mossad, is behind the attacks on Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Two Jews were arrested who had explosive devices to cause explosions in these Arab countries. And to attribute them to Iran.
All kinds of manipulations are floating in the media space. It is even claimed that the drone attack on Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan, was not the work of Tehran. From there, they deny attacking neighboring Muslim countries. Just in case, Aliyev summoned the Iranian ambassador to Baku to hear that Tehran had nothing to do with these drones. Something similar to Erdogan's reaction to the missile that came from Cyprus and was shot down near Hatay, Turkey. Nicosia expresses disagreement with its involvement in the game of punk-punk with drones and missiles, but the military bases of the Kingdom, the United States, France and Greece in Cyprus are unlikely to create comfort for the island in the troubled times of the war in Iran.
After a week of war, Larijani, the secretary general of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, declared that "the United States will explain its losses by presenting them as accidents". The point is that a US serviceman in Kuwait died due to "health problems". First "suspicious death", because of which Larijani said that "they cannot hide the truth and will cover it up with accidents and illnesses". He added that "there are field reports indicating the presence of captured American soldiers".
In Washington, they claim that they "died in battle". They say that "this is a hoax" by Tehran. Like hunting! The question is who is losing confidence in this "psychological war", as the authorities in Iran define it.
More importantly, the spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard, Naini, says that "Iran can wage an intensive war against the US and Israel for 6 months, and at the current pace. So far, "first and second generation" missiles have been used, but in the coming days they will "deploy advanced and rarely used long-range missiles".
And the question is, will the regime in Iran be overthrown? The Washington Post writes that "even large-scale military attacks on Iran are unlikely to overthrow the established regime in the country". They had information from a "secret report". Iran had developed various options if attacked to ensure regime continuity, including the death of Ayatollah Khamenei. The likelihood of the fragmented opposition seizing power in the country after the attacks by the US and Israel is considered low.
More and more often, analyses are published that the economic cost is growing, the strategic goals are unclear. They write that "the risks and challenges facing Trump are increasing". He acted contrary to his promises to protect the US from "stupid military interventions". The result was "a war on elections". And now he is looking for an exit strategy by making mixed statements about "justifications for war and definitions of victory". The weakening of support for Trump could lead to the loss of control by Republicans in the House of Representatives in Congress in November.
Is it clear what is being sought in Iran? It is said once that there will be regime change. But two days later it is not mentioned. It is wanted for the Kurds to attack Tehran and it is demanded "unconditional surrender of Iran". On social media. Then it is said that "there is no need for a Kurdish ground operation". Concerns arise about the Strait of Hormuz, where 1/5 of the world's oil passes. Then they say they don't care about rising oil prices. But for voters, the cost of living is the most important issue.
And there is already talk of a "completely unforeseen pain point for the American economy". It is even stated that "the economic impact of the war caught the Trump team off guard because they didn't consult with oil market experts before launching the Iran operation". The allies were also unprepared. And whether Xi Jinping will reconfirm the meeting with Trump in late March or April is no longer at all clear. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has already stated that the war must stop, the alliance with Russia is like a "solid rock", and Beijing will arm Tehran in the best possible way. Not that it hasn't done so before.
Gen. Ben Hodges writes that "from a political, strategic and diplomatic perspective, war seems ill-advised. And Trump, on his way to Florida, admits that "the balance of power in the region has not developed as he expected". The addition is that "regime change is impossible" and "we are friends with the Kurds, but I decided I don't want the Kurds to go there". There is no way after Barzani from Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan, has already stated that "not a single Kurd from Iraqi Kurdistan will cross the border with Iran", and Talabani from Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan, says that "Iran's internal dynamics and defensive lines cannot be shaken". Both are in direct contact with Ankara, especially Barzani.
And Turkey is categorically against this war, no matter what else is said. Let the Syrian Kurds think about it.
Trump continues with "Iran is surrendering". Tehran claims that this is "an element of psychological warfare", and Axios writes that "the US and Israel are considering sending special forces to confiscate Iran's enriched uranium stocks. At that time, in the Oval Office, evangelical pastors touched Trump and prayed. For "grace and protection". The pastors' hands were on Trump's shoulders and body. For "Protection".
Will it help? Faith has always been a support when needed. Let's see how our leaders will get out of the situation. For now, they have released an interview with the Iranian ambassador to Sofia. We have been friendly countries. Both in the past and today. Hopefully. We are a peace-loving people.