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Evgeniy Kanev: The war in Iran today has logical reasons and a not-so-logical reason

And now we are in a downward phase of the cycle that began in the late 1980s

Снимка: БГНЕС
ФАКТИ публикува мнения с широк спектър от гледни точки, за да насърчава конструктивни дебати.

The war in Iran today has logical reasons and a not-so-logical reason - the fruit of subjective considerations of the leaders of the USA and Israel (a rather sensitive topic for many people).

I usually pay attention to the reason - the subjective considerations of the leaders, because most analysts are obsessed with the reasons.

I consider the reason to be no less important - a diversion of attention from the internal problems of Trump (Epstein) and Netanyahu (corruption prosecution), because the conflict in terms of intensity and duration directly depends on them. This is why strategic mistakes are made, such as the idea of bombing the regime in Iran - without taking into account its fanaticism, military loyalty, huge population and territory, and the help of Russia and China to prevent regime change.

But let me say a few things about the reasons.

To be understood in depth - they must be viewed as layers of a matryoshka doll.

(1) The innermost and smallest matryoshka doll of the reasons is the battle for resources.

This is certainly in Trump's aggressive strategy so far in Iran, Venezuela, and the Greenland experience. Through them, the US wants to compensate for the huge resources owned by Russia and accessible to China, and through aggression to gain leverage. First of all - oil, on whose trade the strength of the dollar is based to the greatest extent.

(2) The next matryoshka of reasons is the battle of technologies.

Every new war usually becomes an arena for testing new technologies - the latest of which are related to AI. The US is extremely concerned about the enormous progress of China - and its military cooperation with Russia and Iran. There is currently a huge tension between the government and private military companies in the US, who refuse to have their technologies used indiscriminately in war.

(3) The next matryoshka is about finance.

The US wants to break up the BRICS axis, in which Iran is a key link (the Chinese belt) and form an alternative financial system that will threaten the entire West, which is now imposing the rules around the world (remember how quickly the US took over Lukoil just by stopping bank payments).

(4) The next matryoshka is the battle for the survival of the US as a leading world power,

on which the world order continues to depend. Through Trump, there was hope that this would happen in a radical way through a combination of military, technological and financial power, but his characteropathy is rather working for the faster decline of the USA.

(5) The next level is the demographic explosion after WWII - from 2.5 to nearly 8.5 billion people in just 80 years!

Of these, 5 billion people live in Asia! It is clear that a movement to change the world order will emerge from here. Therefore, the USA and Europe can only protect their interests and values together. Now, however, Trump is rather helping Asia.

(6) The highest level and the biggest matryoshka are the long cycles (about 40-50 years),

through which the world naturally goes. These are economic, political and technological waves in every cycle.

And now we are in the downward phase of the cycle that began in the late 1980s.