In recent years, Russia has attacked Ukraine with tens of thousands of Iranian "Shahed" drones. Now Iran is using them for its attacks on Bahrain, the UAE and even Cyprus.
At first glance, it seems that when Iran uses its drones for the war it is waging, it will be to the detriment of Russia, but the situation is not so simple. In fact, in recent years, Moscow has begun to produce "Shahed" drones itself with a Russian copy of Iranian technology and support them with spare parts from China.
Rising oil prices are a gift for Russia
However, Ukraine may face other problems related to the US and Israel's war with Iran. One serious concern is rising energy prices - Iran has been attacking gas and oil storage facilities and facilities in neighboring countries. Qatar, for example, has temporarily closed one of them, which supplied natural gas to much of Europe, and prices are rising. The Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil passes, has also been closed.
All of this is beneficial to Russia, whose economy relies heavily on fuel exports. Until recently, prices had fallen low enough to cause problems for Russia. Now, however, that is changing.
Moscow had begun to fill the gaps in its budget by pursuing citizens who did not pay taxes, and some municipalities began to have problems paying their debts. All of this was rooted in the fact that oil was becoming cheaper - Russia had to sell a barrel of oil for about $15-20 less than the average price up to that time. At the same time, India was forced by the US to stop buying oil from Russia. Moscow might have to think about how to sustain its war for another year or more. Now the economic pressure is easing.
Will the US forget about Ukraine?
There is another really serious problem for Ukraine, and it is related to the support that the US is providing to Kiev. In the midst of the new war that Washington is waging with Iran, it is possible that the administration in Washington will simply forget about Ukraine. At the beginning of the hostilities, US President Donald Trump stated that the war in Ukraine remains among his priorities, but he did not fail to say that it does not have much effect on the US, because it is very far away.
The information with which the CIA assists Ukraine is of key importance for the country's defense. But the American ammunition that the US is already selling to European countries, which in turn provide them to Ukraine, may also prove to be a problem. If the US decides that it has more pressing problems that require, for example, the Patriot air defense systems, this could be detrimental to Ukraine and its ability to defend its cities from Russian attacks. The US currently produces about 600 of its most advanced interceptor missiles per year. In the past few days alone, Iran has fired over 150 ballistic missiles at the UAE. By comparison, Russia fires about 90 per month at Ukraine.
The German Defense Minister recently said that Germany would send five more such missiles to Ukraine and hopes that other European countries will follow suit. Intercepting ballistic missiles is particularly difficult - sometimes several interceptor missiles need to be launched for one ballistic attack missile. That is why they are among the most important weapons supplies that Ukraine relies on. Given the intensity of Iran's attacks on US allies in the Persian Gulf, these countries will probably try to become a priority for supply in place of Ukraine.
Drone defense in exchange for interceptors
Ukraine has offered the Gulf states to train their defense forces and provide them with anti-drone technology in exchange for the missiles needed for air defense.
The most important question remains time. The US president first said that the operation against Iran could last more than a month, and then that it was almost over. The messages coming from Washington are mixed. At the same time, the Islamic Republic is adamant that it will not surrender. The longer the war between the US and Israel and Iran continues, the more oil prices will rise and the greater the amount of US military equipment and ammunition will be concentrated there. This would be a victory for Vladimir Putin and a huge problem for Ukraine.
Author: Ralph Martin