In fact, after the recent dynamic events surrounding the war between Israel and the US against Iran, one can also ask whether "the horse has really crossed the bridge"?
As is known, the main strategy of the US is to continue its global hegemony and it is evident that Washington's decision is to achieve it by striking at China by controlling the energy basins of the Caspian region and the Persian Gulf. Goals such as preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, ensuring Israel's security, and the Epstein files remain far behind, without of course downplaying their importance. Iran and China were declared enemies, but there was no priority for military intervention.
The aim was to restore the previous power of the US through economic measures. Western commentators, however, are convinced that because of the Epstein files, Trump was forced to fulfill Netanyahu's desire to wage war in West Asia to guarantee the security of Tel Aviv. And to seize Iran's vast oil and gas resources. Only the United States, evangelicals with claims of being elected to establish world order, is able to cut off energy routes and impose its will on the world. Including by controlling the Strait of Hormuz. Trump is clearly convinced that by regaining its former power, the United States will also restore its global hegemony. Just as they wish. They still hold world leadership in areas such as AI and biotechnology, which will determine the future of the world.
Indeed, after Venezuela, Washington turned its attention to Iran, with which China has had a strategic agreement for oil supplies at concessional rates since 2021. In exchange for $400 billion in investments in oil, natural gas and petrochemicals. Something like Venezuela, but on a larger scale. China also imports large quantities of oil and gas, 55% of its total needs, from the Persian Gulf - from Saudi Arabia 14%, Iraq 10%, Iran 11%, Oman 7%, UAE 6%. 38% of the oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the US has control over Iran, they will achieve control over the so-called weak point of China - energy. It can be assumed that this is precisely the goal of attacking Iran. This is how it is achieved to kill two birds with one stone - Iran remains outside the system and is in the hands of Washington after 47 years of power of the ayatollahs, and China is under so-called control through energy. The question remains whether it will win this war?
At this stage, opinions are in the direction of "impossible". To reach nuclear weapons, as they hint in Tel Aviv? And how will the world react? That is why it is said that "the horse has already crossed the bridge". Iran, with clever tactics and patience, is weakening its rivals. Without ever competing with them militarily, economically or as a power. They also say that the security of the dollar, the weak point of the US, was in danger. The probability of a stagnation in the US debt is very high. And it could even lead to printing money, which was abandoned back in 2022.
In such a situation, it is clearly evident that modern warfare is different. You don't need to have the best and most powerful missiles, but to be able to reload them, for example. In practice, Iran and the US have different strategies for waging war. Washington uses the so-called old-fashioned approach of building extremely powerful and incredibly accurate flying bombs that are difficult to stop and destroy everything they hit. Tehran builds cheap, low-tech missiles and drones that are easy to stop. But it produces so many of them that it overwhelms the enemy's defenses. They also carry explosives that cause damage when they hit their target. They hope that at least one will get through. These are Ukrainian tactics, and they are clearly well-studied.
Iran is not defending itself against American super bombs. It is hiding. If the US doesn't find them, they can't detonate them. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has called this tactic the "Decentralized Mosaic Defense Doctrine". Something like a modern version of guerrilla warfare. The principle is the same - it only takes one to get through. They killed their leadership, blew up wherever there are military facilities and sites, and victory is not in sight. Iran's strategy is clearly to drag out this war long enough to inflict huge economic damage until Washington is forced to back down.
The Strait of Hormuz has turned out to be a major weapon for Iran in this economic war. Tehran essentially decides what the international price of oil will be today. By blowing up an oil refinery or pipeline in the Gulf and its neighbors. And Trump must stop this war before the midterm elections for Congress and the Senate on November 3. Tehran remains open-ended. The longer the war goes on, the more it costs. Right now, it's a billion a day. The United States is very rich, but not so rich that it can sustain this forever. They clearly haven't learned anything from the Ukrainian war. It is proof that modern wars are not about high-tech and super-expensive munitions, but about cheap and abundant drones.
Washington has powerful weapons and bases all over the world in order to respond quickly to any crisis and with enormous force. They have repeatedly increased the technical power of their American fleet, but it could not withstand Iranian drones for 20 thousand dollars. Both the aircraft carriers "Ford" and "Lincoln" withdrew due to fires and hits, some of which were subjected to ridicule by Western journalists. The American fleet refused to enter the narrow Strait of Hormuz, because they feared being sunk by an Iranian motorboat full of explosives. And the Europeans refused to send their warships to pass through this Hormuz. The war was not theirs and no one had asked them in advance. Then some, like London, caved, but Trump told them that he would not forget their reaction. And the Iranians are firing cheap drones from mountain caves along the coastline.
Trump has definitely fallen victim to his confidence in the enormous power of the American fleet, and this is simply evidence of the inertia of waging war from the past. Whether it is arrogance or blind faith in his own propaganda will be clear after the end of the war. For now, he is angry and even says that he will "take the US out of NATO". The alliance was "a paper tiger". But he does not have the power to do this. And whether he will seize the island of Kharg in order to deliver another powerful blow to Tehran and force it to open Orzum is still unclear. The blow will be really big, because from this island Iran exports its oil to the world, mainly to China.
And China, together with Russia, seems to have taken the position of "counting the corpses floating in the river". They don't do anything for Iran, but the fact that it used the Fattah-2 missile, a hypersonic one with a secondary engine that allows it to jump sideways, means that someone gave them the technology. Russia and China have cutting-edge hypersonic missiles. They are also in the informal CRINK alliance /China, Russia, Iran and North Korea/, where they cooperate in the development of modern military technologies. The armies of these countries represent half of the number of armed men in the world. The US really has a problem. Iranian desert power has proven to be extremely effective. While Israel and the Gulf states began to run out of interceptor missiles after only 3 days of fighting.
Whether Trump has watched many American war movies is a topic for American journalists, but it is a fact that Iran has a population of 90 million people, more than Germany, and a standing army of 600 thousand people, about 2 times larger than the Turkish army, of which 190 thousand are fanatical and very well-trained troops of the Guards Corps. If there is a ground operation and the US Marines disembark, it is very likely that they will be killed. And the information coming out that the US today has only one factory that produces rocket fuel and one for explosives, the picture becomes quite gloomy. If the war lasts more than a few months.
The wars in Ukraine and Iran are called "operations" by the West, designed to reduce the military capabilities of Rukia and China /through Iran/. The principle is to wage war in order to win. And these wars are "I give you weapons so you don't lose, but not so much that you win". You are not the target. It is believed that there will be a ceasefire agreement on the principle of "nothing personal, just a deal". However, Iran is hardly the case. Tehran is on the "all or nothing" principle and will fight to the death. Much has been accumulated for revenge. And many have become martyrs. A matter of religion, customs and traditions. For thousands of years. This is Persia!. It should not be confused with Syria and Iraq.
The country of the ayatollahs has three shortcomings - it does not have a well-equipped and sufficient air force, it has economic difficulties, despite the oil and gas deposits, and in addition there is dissatisfaction of at least some of the ethnic groups among Iranian citizens. But it has one advantage - human strength and spirit. But today wars are fought with technology, not manpower. Thus, Iran's weakness against the US and Israel becomes obvious. Tehran can prolong the war, but it is not certain how long it will be able to withstand the superior military power of the US and Israel on its own.
However, it remains unclear why the US started this war. Some say that this war is harming the US, weakening Iran, but strengthening Israel. Is it really becoming "Israel first" instead of "America first"? Criticism is growing in Washington, and Hormuz affects 1/3 of the world energy market and 1/5 of the liquefied natural gas market. One thing remains certain - regardless of when this war ends - the world, especially the Middle East, is pregnant with new balances. At least that's what the Arab media write. And when there will be a new order depends on China, Russia and even India. This is also written in the West and in the Arab countries.