Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The election campaign was going well for all parties until Boyko Borisov discovered that “Bulgaria is sitting on gold”. The topic of shale gas came up at the National Conference of GERB through the mouth of the rehabilitated Delyan Dobrev and enlivened the banal campaign, giving it a geopolitical discourse. It's no surprise - after all, it's about energy.
2012 Moratorium
Shale gas production, which has been under a moratorium for 14 years, is back in the game not to be allowed, but because of a combination of several factors: an election campaign, a new energy price shock, and the EU's strategy to end Russian gas by 2027. Russian liquefied gas must stop by the end of 2026, and piped gas by the end of September 2027. This forces countries to look for alternatives and makes it easier for politicians to "sell" the production of "local gas" to citizens, including those who disagree.
The price pressure has already begun. The KEVR approved a natural gas price for April 2026 of 34.27 euros/MWh - about 5.12% above the March value. On TTF, the Dutch gas hub that sets natural gas prices in Europe, quotes in recent days have been around 54 euros/MWh.
Politicians in action
Recently, “Blue Bulgaria“ also demanded an immediate lifting of the moratorium, arguing about the price shock and that the ban preserves “high prices for Russian gas“. On bTV, Delyan Dobrev said that the reason was “the moment with the war in Iran“ and the price spike, that GERB would seek a “national consensus“ on shale gas, and that extraction was already safe, since the technology excluded chemicals. The latter is a rather misleading statement, since fracking includes chemical additives, albeit in a small percentage. They have not been removed, but replaced with less toxic options.
According to Dobrev, there is data on 1 trillion cubic meters in Northern Bulgaria. The then Minister of Economy Traycho Traykov, who is today the Minister of Energy in the caretaker government, claimed the same in 2012 - that production from this region could cover 30% of Bulgaria's needs. Some time ago, he even pointed out that “Gazprom” was behind the first major hybrid attack in Bulgaria, which was specifically against the production of shale gas.
Another reason for bringing up the topic is that Bulgaria is already in an energy diversification regime. In 2025, the government signed a contract with Shell for oil and natural gas exploration in Block 1-21 “Khan Tervel“ in the Black Sea.
The Vertical Gas Corridor is also being developed, which should be ready on Bulgarian territory by October 1, 2026. The pipe connects Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova and Ukraine. This is a key route for the blue fuel from south to north, along which liquefied natural gas from the USA, the Eastern Mediterranean and other partners will be delivered to Southeastern Europe.
All this shows that shale gas is being inserted into a broader narrative - to look for any sources that are not related to “Gazprom”.
Some political considerations
Of course, the election campaign heats up the topic, which is used for energy-geopolitical opposition and thus consolidates the voters of individual parties. Rumen Radev brings up the topic of cheap Russian oil, which will become even more relevant with the rise in the price of the raw material due to the war in Iran. “It is not normal to import oil from distant countries, through straits with high fees and risk, when the cheap oil for which our refinery is adapted is 2 days away by direct route across the Black Sea“, said the former president.
This argument conveniently reduces the issue to logistics and price, but ignores the main problem - that cheap energy raw materials come with a geopolitical dependence that is costly.
Thus, under the guise of concern, Radev is once again stating positions that he had neglected for some time.
There can be no consensus
In 2012, the moratorium on shale gas extraction through fracking was adopted with the votes of GERB, BSP, DPS and “Ataka” after mass protests. Now the place of “Ataka” will take the “Vazrazhdane” seat, and “Progressive Bulgaria” will also be an opponent. BSP leader Krum Zarkov has already stated that the party is against shale gas extraction. The position of the PP-DB coalition is unclear.
According to the co-chairman of “Yes, Bulgaria”, part of the DB, Ivaylo Mirchev, the topic of shale gas distracts the debates from the central issue of justice. And so it is, it is good for voters to know the PP-DB's views on the topic.
The moratorium prevented Chevron, which had just received a 5-year permit, from exploring for shale gas in “Block 1 Novi Pazar“ of about 4,400 sq. km. But who knows - Chevron may return to Bulgaria as the owner of the foreign assets of “Lukoil”, for which it is a candidate.
Only for mobilizing voters?
Introducing the topic of shale gas in the middle of the election campaign is also convenient for mobilizing different electorates: for the right - as a symbol of energy independence and an anti-Russian line; for leftists and populists - as a symbol of protection of land, water and Dobrudja.
But more appropriate, given the looming dangerous increase in the price of blue fuel, would be to shed light on how far the expansion of the gas storage facility in Chiren has gone, which was supposed to double its capacity to 1 billion cubic meters. The winter season is coming to an end, and how far the project has even gone - subject to investigation, there is no information.
That is why there is an election campaign in the style of “gas, oil and waltz”.