Like many, I thought that former US President George W. Bush's decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was the biggest strategic mistake America has made, at least since the Vietnam War. That is, until now. This is what Ivo Daalder, a former US ambassador to NATO and a senior fellow at the Belfer Center at Harvard University, wrote for "Politico".
"US President Donald Trump's decision to join Israel in a war against Iran is a much bigger strategic mistake, with much greater strategic consequences. The reasons for this are many, from the immediate impact on the region and the global economy to the long-term consequences for Russia and China, as well as the implications for U.S. alliances and America’s global standing.
That much is clear now—and it’s only been three weeks.
Let’s start with the similarities: Like the war in Iraq, the war on Iran began on the assumption that the ruling regime would quickly fall and that a new, more moderate, and less antagonistic one would take its place. In both cases, the idea was to eliminate the greatest destabilizing threat in the Middle East—Saddam Hussein’s regime in the first case, the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran in the second—through the swift and decisive use of military force.
But while Bush understood that defeating the regime required ground forces, Trump seems to have simply hoped that air power alone would suffice. As a result, Hussein's regime fell quickly - even though Bush greatly underestimated what it would take to restore a stable, let alone democratic, Iraq in its place. The Iranian government, however, - as US intelligence officials themselves testified - "appeared to be intact", even though Israel had killed many of its key political and military leaders in targeted strikes.
Focusing on the region as a whole, Bush's misjudgment ultimately contributed to a large-scale insurgency that strengthened Iranian influence in Iraq and the wider Middle East. In contrast, Trump’s misjudgment has led to a regime that, in addition to ensuring its own survival, is now focused solely on inflicting as much damage as possible on the United States and its allies.
Iranian drones and missiles have already attacked Israel and the Gulf states, targeted critical energy facilities, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 1/5 of the world’s oil and gas transits.
Less than a month later, the world is witnessing the largest oil and gas supply disruption in history. And as the fighting escalates, now involving oil and gas infrastructure, the global economic fallout will be felt by each country for months, if not years, even if the conflict ends soon.
The damage already done to the global economy is far greater than the economic fallout from the Iraq war as a whole.
But that’s not all. Geopolitically, a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran would have far greater consequences than the Iraq war.
First, the Bush administration spent a lot of time and effort trying to get allies to join and support the war. It didn’t entirely succeed, as key allies like Germany and France continued to oppose the conflict. But at least it tried.
Trump, by contrast, didn’t even try to get America’s most important allies involved. Not only that, he didn’t even inform them of his decision. And yet, when Iran responded predictably by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the US president demanded that allies send their naval forces to escort the tankers - even though the US Navy itself has so far refused to do so.
And while it is true that Iraq has inflicted severe scars on many US allies - even those who joined the war, such as the UK - Iran has convinced US allies that they can no longer rely on Washington, which is now a real threat to their economic security.
It will also have a lasting impact far beyond anything the Iraq war did.
Finally, the fact is that when Bush decided to invade Iraq, Russia and China were still minor world powers. Russian President Vladimir Putin was just beginning his efforts to stabilize the economy and rebuild Russia’s military might, and China had just joined the World Trade Organization and was still a decade or more away from becoming an economic superpower. In other words, America’s blunder in Iraq occurred at a time when the strategic implications for the global balance of power were still manageable.
However, Trump’s failure with Iran comes at a time when China is effectively competing with the United States for global power and influence, and Russia is engaged in the largest military action in Europe since the end of World War II.
Both sides stand to benefit significantly.
Russia is the short-term winner here. Oil prices are rising, generating over $150 million a day in additional revenue for Moscow to fuel its war machine. The United States is easing sanctions on Russia in a futile attempt to stem rising gas prices. All the while, Ukraine is left to fend off Russian drone and missile attacks without the modern defensive weapons now used to defend Israel and the Persian Gulf.
Meanwhile, China is watching as the United States shifts its military forces from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East, where they are likely to remain for months, if not years. These forces include an aircraft carrier strike group, a high-altitude terminal missile defense system from Korea, and a Marine Expeditionary Force from Japan. And while disruptions to oil and gas supplies are a short-term problem for Beijing, China’s rapid transition to renewable energy and close cooperation with energy-rich Russia will position it to face the future with confidence.
Bush and Trump came to power determined to avoid the misguided wars of their predecessors. Yet both embarked on military adventures fueled by an overweening confidence in American power.
But while the United States was strong enough—and its adversaries still weak enough—to undo much of the damage done by Bush’s war, the war unfolding in Iran today will leave behind an America that will have lost much of its global power, standing, and influence, and will be forced to stand alone against its rising adversaries.