Who are the people who vote for the main parties in Bulgaria? Despite the reservations, it should still be possible to describe the motivation of the different electorates, believes Daniel Smilov.
Public opinion surveys, together with the statements of the leaders and their programs, make it possible to create a profile of the voter: real or desired. Of course, in this profiling there are ambiguities and unknowns that will remain until the end of the elections, and perhaps even after them. But it should still be possible to describe the main motivation of the different electorates.
"Progressive Bulgaria"
The people who will decide to vote for Radev are of two types. The first is the Russophile vote, which sees in it an opportunity for long-awaited political rehabilitation and revenge. These are people who are ready to temporarily suppress open speech against Europe, the EU and the West in general until the moment they gain power. After that moment, they will exert very strong pressure on Radev to radicalize the positions of "Progressive Bulgaria" internationally and domestically - and it is not clear to what extent he will oppose it. This pressure will be in the direction of restoring relations with Russia, using Russian energy, stopping aid (especially military) to Ukraine, lifting sanctions on Russia, etc. Domestically, this group of voters most openly opposes the pro-European parties (PP-DB) and will be inclined to introduce restrictive policies against NGOs, universities and citizens borrowed from the Putin and Orbán regimes.
The other group of Radev voters are anti-corruption-minded and want to see the dismantling of the Borisov-Peevski model, without changing Bulgaria's orientation towards the EU and the West in general. This group prefers Radev to PP-DB for two reasons. First, it is disappointed with the PP-DB's inability to deal with Borisov and Peevski and wants to try something different. Second, it votes for the winner of the elections, and Radev is leading in the sociologists' forecasts.
GERB-DPS
One of the hosts of the morning block of a major television station announced a participant in a debate from GERB-SDS as a representative of GERB-DPS. With or without Freud, the mistake in this case is correct, because GERB-DPS from an analytical point of view should be considered as a single entity. Even if DPS is not formally in government, if GERB is in it, DPS is also a participant. Since 2017 (and at earlier times) this has always been a fact and nothing else can be expected after these elections.
From this point of view, the groups of people who will vote for the GERB-DPS tandem are the following: first, these are pro-European people who want to be with the winner. Borisov has brought them many victories over the years and although his political gravity has weakened, they would still bet on him. These people value victory more than the personal integrity of the leader; victory for them is more valuable than the elimination of systemic corruption in the party and the state.
Secondly, these are the people from the created significant administrative clientele, which both GERB and MRF have at their disposal. The loyalty of these people is due to a direct interest in preserving the positions they have. Part of this clientele is also held with the tools of the state machine: either through budgetary carrots and sticks, or directly through punitive repression. In the end, Dzhevdet Chakarov ended up on the lists of MRF-New Beginning, most likely as a disciplinary demonstration for the clientele.
Thirdly, those voting for GERB-MPS are people with a practical orientation, who see in Borisov a pragmatic and clever player who can get out of any situation. These people do not adhere to a specific ideology and their vote is not value-motivated. Or rather, it is motivated by the value of outsmarting. From this perspective, Borisov's ideological pirouettes are not a defect, but an advantage. For example, the fact that he both built "Turkish Stream" quickly and at the expense of Bulgaria, and is pro-European and a friend of Angela Merkel, is for these people the highest form of political aerobatics.
For GERB-DPS, people who are directly motivated by vote buying or with the so-called controlled vote usually also vote. The caretaker government will limit the influence of both forms of stimulation, but they must also be considered seriously and separately.
PP-DB
PP-DB has the most ideologically and value-oriented electorate in the core of its formations. This somewhat hinders their ability to mobilize a wider periphery, because the content purity and clarity of the message usually leads to the alienation of some voters. In general, PP-DB will be voted for by people who want a European Bulgaria, in which there is no corruption. They hold both the country's pro-European orientation and anti-corruption policy. Therefore, for them, a coalition with pro-Russian and Eurosceptic parties, as well as a coalition with GERB and DPS, is a problem. The "assembly" is still pointed out to this day only as a problem for PP-DB: from the point of view of GERB-DPS, it is more of a tactical success in outsmarting the opponent.
PP-DB will also be voted for by people who like the "Gyurov" government and see in it a model for future governance. Those who want to see resistance to pressure in the anti-corruption fight will also vote for them. After all, PP-DB has been constantly in the crosshairs of the services and the prosecutor's office before all elections in recent years of this formation and some "scandal" or "affair" is being prepared. In the current case, attempts are being made to attach the "Petrohan" case to PP-DB, although in fact there is no political connection. Mayors of PP-DB have already spent months in prison for similar, flimsy reasons, and Gyurov himself was even removed from the BNB. However, this institutional pressure is also proof that the formation can stand up for its values, which is certainly important for some voters.
Finally, people also vote for PP-DB partly for aesthetic reasons, because in terms of behavior they follow different models than many other parties. Aesthetics provide quick recognition and a sense of belonging (especially among younger and more educated groups), but at the same time it is also a tool for alienation and one of the reasons why the PP-DB has difficulty going beyond large urban centers.
The real slogans
Based on this analysis, the real slogans of the main parties can also be derived. Usually, the official slogans are clichés - variations of "Freedom, equality, brotherhood". In the absence of imagination, these clichés can become even more monotonous, such as "Work, work, work". The substantive slogans of the parties, however, are usually different and you will rarely see them written explicitly on their advertising materials.
"Progressive Bulgaria" can safely embroider on its flags "Down with the oligarchy and revenge for the Russophiles!". The oligarchy should be Borisov and Peevski, although Radev is sparing and evasive in the details. The second part of the slogan is clearer and more unambiguous. This slogan would satisfy both main groups of the party's electorate, although each of them would still have some doubts and dissatisfaction.
GERB-DPS have had a slogan in recent years that sounds like this: "Better corruption than compromise with geopolitical orientation!" . It is true that this slogan is long and therefore difficult to write out in its entirety. DPS-New Beginning is creatively working on the issue of shortening it, and the most suitable option so far is "Better corruption!" or the more modest "Others are worse!". It may sound comical, but if voters look honestly into their souls, they will find that these are the messages that resonate best with their attitudes.
Finally, the PP-DB can also be more frank with its slogans than the pathetic "Strong Bulgaria in a Strong Europe" allows. The message of this formation has always been slightly edifying: "How can you vote for worse!". From the PP-DB's point of view, the best is a European Bulgaria without corruption and they do not believe that compromising with one element (Europe) or the other (the fight against corruption) is worth it. "Only the best!" is another possible slogan of theirs.
People are complex beings and their motivations are peculiar: even the best is almost always insufficient. Some are looking for revenge for the decades of "transition", in which they were either on the losing side, or on the wrong side, or both at the same time. Others are carried away by the cunning in politics. Still others are led by fashion. Still others are counting their pockets. Still others listen to their patron. The combination of all such motivations ultimately leads to a complex parliamentary picture. Let's hope that the new one will be a little better than the current one. This is actually not a bad slogan.
This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State News Agency as a whole.