The analogy is inappropriate, but there is also a thin thread in it. We are talking about grandiose projects of great powers, but San Stefano remains in history simply as an unrealized Bulgarian dream, which even today arouses emotions with a bitter aftertaste.
And the Western project "Three Seas" has been underway for a decade and undoubtedly has its strategic goals with clear messages to the participants. It is proper to have clarity on the goals.
The 11th summit of the "Three Seas" Initiative, which was held a few days ago in Dubrovnik, Croatia, stirred a number of spirits in the Balkans. Because this Initiative has its geopolitical codes. It was created 10 years ago for Central and Eastern Europe between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas. It covers 1/3 of the EU in area and is home to 111 million people. It includes Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, with the Baltic countries and Poland having a coastline on the Baltic Sea, Romania and Bulgaria on the Black Sea, and Croatia and Slovenia on the Adriatic. Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Hungary are landlocked.
But 11 of them /excluding Austria/ are from former countries behind the Iron Curtain and share the common characteristic of being among the most geopolitically constrained and economically underdeveloped countries in the EU. The GDP per capita of these countries is said to be 78% of the EU average.
Western European countries are connected to each other by highways, railways, power lines, oil and gas pipelines, while Central and Eastern European countries lack modern infrastructure and are seeking support from Brussels to address this problem. However, the necessary funds for this are estimated at 1.15 trillion for the energy, digital sectors and infrastructure of Central and Eastern Europe.
The EC is not willing or able to make such expenditures, but 3 American presidents /Obama, Biden, Trump/ after a Report by the Atlantic Council in the USA, directed efforts back in 2014 to "Completing Europe from North to South with energy, transport and telecommunications", which is "intellectual infrastructure" and that is independent of Western Europe. Because the dissatisfaction with the difference between Eastern and Western Europe has been taken into account and this is intended to be used to its advantage. Germany is suspicious, to say the least. Poland and Croatia paved the way for this initiative back in 2015, but in essence, "Three Seas" is a British project to unify Central and Eastern Europe since 1918 with the aim of dismembering Russia. Poland is the country that, through the ideas launched by the Polish marshal and politician Pilsudski, is working to realize the so-called "Inter-Mediterranean". Incidentally, Pilsudski is a sworn enemy of Soviet Russia.
In our time, Ursula von der Leyen stated last year that the "Three Seas" Initiative, supported by the US, aims to limit Russian, Chinese and Turkish influence. But in Dubrovnik, Turkey is participating in the summit for the first time, and as a "strategic partner". It is presented by Hakan Fidan, Foreign Minister. Bulgaria participates at the ambassadorial level. Just domestic political changes. Last year, Ankara was accepted as a "strategic partner" i.e. an investor country at the next "Three Seas" meeting in Warsaw. There is no way that Turkey can stand aside and be indifferent to logistics in the Black Sea, including highways, railways, ports, terminals for liquefied American gas, pipelines, electrical connections, data networks, optical infrastructure.
"Strategic partners" in the project, along with Turkey, are the EC, the USA, Germany, Japan and Spain, and Ukraine, Moldova, Albania and Montenegro are "joint participating countries". But in Ankara they are definitely openly aware that this Initiative goes hand in hand with steps to accommodate troops in Alexandroupolis, the construction of the largest NATO base in Romania, military bases in Bulgaria and logistics centers in Varna and Burgas. Some believe that this threatens stability in the Black and Aegean Seas. Because with the Aegean Sea through Greece, which is attracted to the Initiative, there is no way that concerns about Turkey's security cannot arise.
This has long been a sensitive topic for Ankara and a constant source of tension between Greece and Turkey. That is why they are now saying that "Turkey will build supply lines to its enemy with its own hands". And both countries are members of NATO. A number of commentators in Turkey do not hide that as an investor in this Initiative, which will obviously be necessary, Ankara is taking a risk for projects that will be implemented in Ukraine and Moldova, and they openly "threaten Russia militarily". It is said that this is a trap of the West, which wants to destabilize relations between Turkey and Russia.
Who cares! In fact, some in Ankara say, Brussels does not need Turkey's investments, but its role as a mediator to keep Russia isolated. It is debatable whether such analyses are capable of jeopardizing relations between Moscow and Ankara, because on the chessboard, the country's geopolitical foreign policy is firmly held by Erdogan and Fidan. But they also realize that the "Three Seas" Initiative can prevent the passage of Russian oil and gas to Eastern Europe, and these are already economic losses for Turkey with its Russian gas terminals.
Whatever they comment in Ankara in connection with the Dubrovnik meeting, it has already become clear that the US has publicized the launch of a number of energy and artificial intelligence initiatives in the Balkans. And here Sofia should listen carefully, because this is about our region. At this "Three Seas" forum, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright announced Washington's new vision for the region. He said that Trump "is ushering in a new era of cooperation with Southern, Central and Eastern Europe".
A first step was also taken in Tirana - a $6 billion agreement for liquefied American natural gas, LNG. It was signed by the US Ambassador to Athens, Kimberly Guilfoyle, as a 20-year agreement for the export of LNG. She pointed out that "this commitment strengthens energy, including national, security throughout the region". Pipeline for billions against Russian gas. Minister Wright informed that there is support for an agreement for a pipeline that will transport American LNG from the terminal on the island of Krug in Croatia to Bosnia and Herzegovina. The goal, of course, is to diversify Sarajevo's energy sources and break its dependence on Russian gas. It will be financed and implemented by a US-based company led by Trump's former lawyer, Jesse Binal. The investment is for 1.8 billion dollars.
Joseph Flynn, brother of a former Trump national security adviser, also participated. In addition, Croatia and the United States indicated that there is an agreed cooperation in the field of civil nuclear energy. An artificial intelligence center will be built for 50 billion euros in the interior of the host country. A large-scale partnership in the field of technology has also been signed. After obtaining the necessary permits and updating the network, the artificial intelligence facility will begin construction in 2027 and be operational in 2029. It was expected to have a capacity of 1 gigawatt for artificial intelligence calculations and cloud services. The large-scale project would be called "Pantheon", will generate its own energy and is part of the US initiatives for investment in the Balkans.
The information that the projects on "Three Seas" are for 111 billion euros and 89 of them are "priority" they arouse interest and hopes for development and profits for the participating countries. But it is clear as day that the aim is primarily to replace Russian gas with liquefied American gas. As they say "nothing personal", just business. The priority projects are mainly transport projects, which could also be used as "infrastructure for military supplies". The projects include, for example, a system for renewing the transport infrastructure along the Danube River /Bulgaria is mentioned/, as well as a surveillance system with unmanned aerial vehicles in the Ukrainian, Moldovan and Polish airspace. An important project is the "Trans-European Transport Network Baltic-Adriatic Sea - land, railway. network, sea and air.
The listing of the planned projects in Ankara boils down to the question "for which future war "Three Seas" will be logistical support?" There are even Cassandra-style predictions - for a war between Russia and the US or a war between Turkey and the US? The eyes of fear are wide, but the explanations in the West are for "these are transport networks and defense infrastructure, which will have a deterrent effect on Russia". This is exactly where there is a difference in opinions that are being promoted in the Turkish press. Officially, Ankara maintains a profound silence and seeks to take advantage of the provided, albeit not large-scale, opportunities for economic benefits. As long as the projects do not put Turkey in isolation. Arm wringing is a familiar practice in international affairs. Especially recently, and there is no trust between the countries.
This is the new world we live in. The aspiration of the "small" is what is happening and the policies of the "big ones" are not used against them. If they have the courage and know their interests. Does Sofia know what our interests are in the "Three Seas" project? Should it include, if possible, the D-8 project, in order to finally connect the Black Sea, via Sofia with Skopje to the Adriatic near Albania - with a highway, railway line, pipeline, etc.?
Hopefully it doesn't turn out like it did at San Stefano. Otherwise, events are ahead, including for the "Three Seas" Initiative. It means careful monitoring and fruitful inclusion when possible.