How Has Russia's War Against Ukraine Changed, and Why Could the Chances of Its Ending Increase in the Fall? Experts and military observers agree that a ceasefire is getting closer.
The US-Israeli War Against Iran Continues to Distract Attention from Russia's War Against Ukraine. Kiev fears it will not receive enough American weapons and - if media reports are to be believed - is preparing to fight for another three years. Moscow, on the other hand, benefits from higher oil and gas prices.
This is one side of reality in the spring of 2026. The other is that there is a de facto stalemate on the front - Ukraine is increasingly attacking oil infrastructure facilities deep in Russian territory, for example in Tuapse, while in Russia they are turning off the mobile Internet and President Vladimir Putin's popularity is falling.
What does all this mean? In what direction is the war developing at the beginning of the fifth year of Russian aggression? Western experts and military personnel, whom DW spoke with in late April during the Kiev Security Forum, are convinced that a ceasefire is possible soon. They also link this prediction to the upcoming midterm elections for the US Congress.
Why Putin will not decide on a new mobilization
For several weeks now, international expert circles (and not only there) have been suggestions that, given the situation on the front, Putin may announce a new wave of mobilization, as happened in the fall of 2022.
Some Ukrainian military personnel also do not rule out such a possibility, and President Zelensky recently also referred to their opinion. Western experts and military personnel, however, are skeptical.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of the NATO Military Committee, believes that the situation is indeed close to a stalemate, but he does not believe that there will be mobilization in Russia. According to him, this would contradict the concept of a "special military operation", as Russia calls the war against Ukraine.
Evelyn Farkas, an expert at the McCain Institute in Arizona and a former senior Pentagon official for Ukraine and Russia in the Barack Obama administration, also does not believe that there will be a full-scale mobilization in Russia. She draws attention to the problems in the Russian economy, which, in her opinion, will not allow Putin to declare mobilization.
Volker: Ukraine has reduced its dependence on Western weapons
The former US State Department special representative for Ukraine during Trump's first term, Kurt Volker, believes that - regardless of the situation in the Persian Gulf - Ukraine is now in a stronger position than before. According to him, Kiev has significantly reduced its dependence on Western weapons and in the meantime provides itself with "up to 60-70 percent of what it needs", which allows it to continue fighting even if the United States stops supplying weapons through the Europeans within the framework of the PURL program.
A year earlier, during his visit to the United States, Vladimir Zelensky told the media that if the United States stops its support, Ukraine could lose the war. "This is no longer the case", says Volker. The expert also notes that by the end of this year Washington cannot guarantee the current volume of supplies of strategically important missiles for the "Patriot" air defense systems. Volker explains this with Trump's "priorities" - namely - with the war against Iran.
Farkas: Zelensky resists Trump's pressure
The President of Ukraine recently said that he expects the pressure from the Trump administration to increase by the fall with a demand to accept Russia's terms for a ceasefire - the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kiev-controlled part of Donbas. Evelyn Farkas believes that Ukraine can successfully resist this pressure.
She suggests that the situation around Iran will be settled by the summer, and the Strait of Hormuz will be unblocked, after which the US may attempt to "change the regime" in Cuba, which Trump has spoken about several times. But even in such a scenario, she does not expect this to increase pressure on Kiev and notes that such a thing will rather weaken Russia as a traditional ally of Havana.
Real negotiations after the US midterm elections
Both Farkas and Volker believe that the US midterm elections in November could become a turning point. After these elections, the positions of Trump and the Republican Party will probably weaken. Farkas suggests that because of this, Washington's support for Ukraine, including financial support, may increase. This could create double pressure on the Russian leadership, also related to the economic situation in the country.
The chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Dragone, also indirectly speaks about this. According to him, the war could “hardly” end on the battlefield, but the economy in Russia could become one of the reasons that force Moscow to seek a peace agreement. “And we are approaching that moment”, said former Trump special representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker.
According to him, the negotiations so far to end the war in Ukraine have been “a farce”, but the changing situation inside Russia could force the Kremlin to seek a truce. Volker does not believe that a full-fledged peace agreement can be concluded, because this would mean recognizing the borders of Ukraine and the legitimacy of its government. And Moscow questions all of these things.
When could this turning point occur? Experts' opinions on this issue differ. Volker suggests that this could happen this year, estimating the probability of this at “more than 50 percent”. Farkas, however, speaks of 2027, when “Ukraine might win”.
Even if there are no changes in the near future, Volker believes that next winter will not be as difficult for Ukraine as last. The former US diplomat is convinced that decentralization of energy supply in Ukraine can be expected, which will make it less vulnerable to Russian strikes. His main prediction is that time is working against Putin.