Ukrainian drones that even strike Moscow and the problems on the front are making more and more Russians see that Putin is making completely senseless and destructive decisions. Is this the most dangerous time for Putin?
A full-scale war against Ukraine has long been a leading topic in Europe, but for many Russians it has long remained in second or even third place in importance. A number of surveys by the “Levada” center, conducted since the beginning of the Russian aggression on February 24, 2022, show that inflation, prices and even social issues such as tax policy and the retirement age regularly overtake the topic of Ukraine among the most important issues for Russians.
Putin worked for this very thing. The president calls the war in Ukraine a “special military operation”, and anyone who calls the intervention by its real name is threatened with punishment. Although over 1 million Russians have already died or been wounded on the front, the Kremlin authorities cannot afford to mobilize people - not even from Moscow or St. Petersburg. But it was the parade in Moscow on May 9 that most clearly showed that the war is no longer peripheral, even for those living in the capital.
"Putin's narrative is falling apart"
The parade was drastically shortened due to concerns about Ukrainian drone attacks. A week later, Ukraine launched hundreds of drones and missiles at the Russian capital and managed to hit key targets, and the capital's largest airport, Sheremetyevo, stopped working several times. However, the main problem for Russians is the increasingly severe restriction of access to the Internet and social networks. Popular bloggers and influencers, as well as many businesses, are complaining about it. "Four years ago, President Vladimir Putin offered Moscow and its business elite a deal: support my war in Ukraine, and in return, you won't have to deal with it," wrote the popular journalist and historian Anne Applebaum recently. "That deal was broken."
"The narrative Putin built—of a simple "special military operation" that shouldn't worry Russian elites or the middle class—is now completely unraveling. Any illusion that Moscow itself can stay out of the war is gone," her colleague Phillips Payson O'Brien wrote in The Atlantic magazine. "Ukraine had previously struggled to deploy long-range precision weapons systems, but now it appears to have improved its ability to strike", the historian added.
"In the counterattack against Moscow, Ukrainian systems hit a number of strategic targets: an electronics component factory, oil infrastructure, and other facilities. Having broken through Moscow's defenses once, Ukraine is almost certain to do so again," O'Brien wrote. His assessment is that Ukraine is becoming stronger, even without American help, and is increasingly turning the tide of the war in its favor: "The more the Russian people realize this, the more difficult Putin's situation becomes", he concludes.
The most dangerous period in Putin's entire career?
Many observers and sources in political circles in Moscow and St. Petersburg say Putin is entering the most dangerous phase of his rule yet. Rising prices, tax hikes and impoverishment are fueling discontent among the population, and the lack of a clear perspective in Ukraine is increasingly puzzling the ruling military and political elite.
"There has been a serious change in mood among the elite this year and a serious disappointment with Putin," an influential Russian businessman told the "Guardian". "Nobody believes that everything will suddenly collapse tomorrow", he explained to the British publication. "But more and more people realize that completely senseless and destructive decisions continue to be made. People who once defended Putin no longer do so. Any sense of the future has disappeared." At the same time, speculation about a coup being discussed is spreading more and more among military and political circles.
Although Putin said in early May that the conflict with Ukraine was coming to an end, according to Ukrainian and European services, as well as a number of sources from Russia, the Russian president's goals remain the same. "Putin is fixated on the goal of conquering Donbass and will not stop" before he has mastered the region, the sources of "The Guardian" say. However, according to Western military experts, this could take years.
Those familiar with the situation in the Kremlin warn that the military continues to paint an unrealistically rosy picture of the state of the front before Putin. At the same time, he has completely abandoned the hypothesis that Trump could force Kiev to cede territory in the name of a ceasefire.
Kiev: "We are only responding to attacks"
Meanwhile, Russia has again bombarded Kiev and other cities in Ukraine with missiles and drones, hitting residential buildings, an opera house and a museum. The Defense Ministry in Moscow announced that it had used the supersonic Oreshnik missile in response to Kiev's attacks on civilian targets in Russia.
Ukraine denies shelling civilian objects. "We are responding to attacks, but we are doing so on military targets, drone production or energy facilities," Volodymyr Zelensky commented to "Al Jazeera". Following the attack, Kiev affected the energy infrastructure in the Belgorod region, leading to power and water supply disruptions, Russian media reported.