Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has bet that his joint war with Donald Trump will lead to the fall of Iran's clerical elite and strengthen his position at home before the election as the architect of a US-Israeli alliance capable of transforming the Middle East, BTA writes, citing "Reuters".
Instead, Israel's longest-serving prime minister is headed for a clash with Trump as the US president tries to get the US out of the war, with both their goals remaining unfulfilled and Israel's military operations in Lebanon stalled.
So far, Israeli officials have been cautious in their public statements for fear of irritating their most important ally, known for its sharp reaction to critics.
In closed-door talks, however, the irritation is evident. The preliminary agreement is “terrible for Israel”, said a senior Israeli official, giving a candid assessment on condition of anonymity. “And there is no one in the Israeli leadership who sees it any other way – from the prime minister to the chief of staff.
Washington said it would negotiate final terms over the next 60 days, while the truce lasts, to address U.S. and Israeli concerns, particularly over Iran's nuclear program.
Israeli officials told Reuters they believed the negotiation period for the agreement would likely be extended, tying Israel's hands from taking military action while its concerns remain unresolved.
Netanyahu and Trump have repeatedly clashed over Israel's refusal to limit its actions against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon, and an end to hostilities in Lebanon is a key Iranian demand.
Earlier this month, Trump called Netanyahu "completely crazy" during a heated phone call, ordering him not to strike Beirut while the United States was trying to reach a deal with Iran. Netanyahu called off the strikes that day but carried out strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs a week later, prompting Iranian missile strikes on Israel and public condemnation of both sides by Trump.
Hours before the United States and Iran announced their interim agreement, Israel struck again on the Lebanese capital on Sunday after rockets were fired from Lebanon at Israel - a strike that Trump described as "small and senseless."
Netanyahu said Israel had emerged from the conflict "strong and steadfast," with a leadership that acted with firmness and wisdom. At a press conference in Jerusalem late yesterday, the prime minister acknowledged that he and Trump have sometimes had differences.
„He is the president of the United States, I am the prime minister of Israel. Many times we agree, and there are times when we disagree so much. "I am responsible for Israel's security interests," Netanyahu said.
Netanyahu, who is widely expected to lose the upcoming fall election, may be more inclined to oppose Trump amid growing skepticism among Israelis about the US president's commitment to Israel's security.
"This is a pretty glaring moment of divergence," said Dan Shapiro, a former US ambassador to Israel during the Obama administration who now works at the Atlantic Council, a think tank.
"He will try not to openly oppose (the agreement) so as not to conflict with Trump," Shapiro said. “But it will make it clear that Israel is not bound by it and reserves the right to (self-defense).“
ISRAEL SAYS IT IS NOT BOUND BY US-IRAN AGREEMENT
The memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. Although the exact terms were not immediately known, Pakistan, the mediator in the talks, said the agreement provides for a permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.
Netanyahu said Israel would maintain its forces in southern Lebanon and its “freedom of action” in attacks by “Hezbollah“.
“Iran wanted us to withdraw from there, but I did not back down,“ he told reporters. “We are preserving our freedom of action and the security zone to protect the people of the northern part of the country,“ he added.
The interim agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz – a strategically important oil corridor – while leaving the fate of Tehran's nuclear program to be decided during 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement.
Two other issues that Netanyahu and Trump have touted as justifications for the war in its early stages – limiting Iran’s missile program and ending its support for regional militant groups – are not expected to be on the agenda for these talks.
Three Israeli officials said Israel sees it as highly likely that the 60-day agreement will be extended to 90 days, during which time the United States would maintain a military presence in the region while negotiations for a larger deal are underway.
Two other Israeli officials said Israel was surprised last week when Trump first said a deal with Iran was on the way. They acknowledged that Israel had little success in influencing the negotiations.
All the officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
NETANIAHU WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PRESENT THIS AGREEMENT AS ACCEPTABLE TO THE PUBLIC, ANALYST SAYS
Netanyahu, who often clashed with Washington during the administrations of Democratic US presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden, has long portrayed himself to the Israeli public as uniquely skilled at working with Republican Trump.
During Trump's first term, Israel secured significant political concessions from Washington, which moved its embassy to Jerusalem and supported the Abraham Accords, which led to the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. On Iran, Trump has pulled out of the Obama-era nuclear deal that Israel has long complained was too soft.
During the 2019 election, Netanyahu put up huge campaign billboards in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem showing him and Trump smiling and shaking hands.
But now the U.S.-Iran deal undermines Netanyahu’s argument that his close relationship with Trump sets him apart from other candidates for prime minister, said Jonathan Reinhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv.
“(Netanyahu) will not be able to present this agreement as acceptable to the Israeli public,” Reinhold said. “The best he can hope for is that they fail to reach an agreement and the war starts again in Israel's favor in 60 days.“
According to a survey published Friday by the Israel Institute for the Study of Democracy, only 41% of Israeli Jews think their security is Trump's top priority, down from 64% in March.
Eli Cohen, the energy minister in Netanyahu's government, said Israel would be prepared to act independently if Iran restored its nuclear and missile capabilities, although he said the likelihood of Tehran taking such a step during Trump's term was low. “If Iran tries to resume its nuclear and ballistic missile programs – "We will be there and we will take action," Cohen told Israeli public television, Kan.