Every year, activists, lobbyists, politicians and media proclaim the end of coal. But somehow it keeps getting delayed.
A few days after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in early March, I predicted that coal would be the main beneficiary of limited supplies and high natural gas prices.
That is exactly what happened, and the process is most visible where energy consumption and factory production are growing the fastest - in Asia, of course.
Today, even the International Energy Agency predicts that coal-fired electricity will increase by 1.4% globally in 2026. However, we must add to this the ever-increasing quantities of coal that China is converting into fuels, chemicals and fertilizers to protect its economy from high oil and gas prices. India and Indonesia are also stepping up their investments in these technologies.
Note that the El Niño climate phenomenon this year is exceptionally strong. It can increase the demand for electricity for both cooling and heating. At the same time, extreme weather events tend to limit production from solar, hydro and wind power plants.
Almost everywhere, the situation is saved by coal-fired power plants, which have a habit of operating when needed.