The presidential campaign has practically already begun. Not because the calendar says so, but because the only candidate with a truly developed public strategy is already on the field. While the other political forces are still considering who to nominate, whom to convince and what formula to look for, Iliyana Yotova - the current president, after Rumen Radev entered the political arena - is already campaigning.
August is traditionally a month for a political break. This year, however, looks different. While most potential contenders will use the time for internal party calculations and polling, including vacation and beach time, Yotova is gaining the most valuable political resource - time. Every day that there is no clearly defined main rival works in her favor.
An additional advantage for the incumbent vice president was also brought by the official refusal of Daniel Valchev to participate in the presidential race. It was around his candidacy that many saw an opportunity for broad social and political unification beyond traditional party divisions. With his withdrawal, this hypothesis fell away and the political space remained even more fragmented.
At the moment, the chairman of the Bulgarian National Union of Students, Nikolay Nenchev, is also an officially nominated candidate. Others, such as Ivan Hristanov, for example, as well as other new or already known individuals, are expected to join the race. There is talk of more candidacies, but for now most remain in the realm of political intentions, not real decisions.
This is where the great paradox appears. Almost all analysts accept a runoff as the most likely scenario. The real question is no longer whether there will be a second round, but who will face off against Iliyana Yotova. The leader of “Vazrazhdane“ Kostadin Kostadinov is most often mentioned, but in a dynamic campaign, other developments cannot be ruled out.
The more candidates enter the first round, the more the opposition vote is scattered. Each new contender takes votes not so much from the favorite as from his other competitors. This turns the first round into a battle for survival between the opposition candidates, rather than a direct clash with the favorite.
Yet, a scenario that until recently seemed almost unthinkable should not be ruled out - election of a president in the first round. For such a development, many factors need to align simultaneously, but if the opposition remains highly fragmented, without a common strategy and without a convincing candidacy, such a possibility no longer sounds as incredible as it did a few months ago.
Of course, the election campaign will still offer surprises. Bulgarian politics has repeatedly proven that it is capable of producing unexpected twists and turns in recent weeks. That is why Yotova's current advantage is not a guarantee of final success.
There is also another important element that could change the configuration. So far, Iliyana Yotova has not yet presented a candidate for vice president. Namely, this figure could prove decisive. A well-chosen partner would expand public support and bring additional weight to the candidate-presidential couple. However, an unconvincing choice could become the weak point of an otherwise strong campaign.
The reason is obvious. In modern politics, candidates are no longer attacked only for their own actions. The people around them also fall under public and media pressure. Every officially announced contender almost instantly becomes the subject of checks, smear campaigns, publications and attempts to discredit their reputation. Therefore, the choice of a vice president is no longer just a personnel decision, but a strategic move, capable of both bringing additional percentages and creating serious political problems.
For now, however, the facts speak for themselves. Two candidates are already on the field. The others are still searching for their direction. And in politics, time almost always works for the one who started playing first.