"Unfortunately, we will never truly join NATO": former Ukrainian army chief Valery Zaluzhny calls for new formats to be sought instead of waiting for Ukraine to join NATO. What does this mean?
"Unfortunately, we will never truly join." These words of Valery Zaluzhny regarding Ukraine's prospects for NATO membership have caused a strong response in recent days. According to him, the obstacle is that "at the current level of development of the Ukrainian army, it is impossible to enter an organization that is guided by doctrines from World War II".
Zaluzhny, who is a former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army and current Ukrainian ambassador to the United Kingdom, pleaded for a stronger focus on other formats of security cooperation, which he believes would be more effective - a statement that sparked a debate in Ukraine about the country's future Euro-Atlantic orientation.
"Russia is exploiting NATO's fear of war"
Pavlo Lakichuk of the Ukrainian Center for Global Studies "Strategy XXI" describes Zaluzhny's words as "a cold shower", which, however, could be beneficial for Ukraine. He told DW that the Alliance is currently experiencing difficulties that have deep historical roots. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, NATO lost its main enemy and had to look for a new role. "With the end of the Warsaw Pact and the USSR, NATO fell into an identity crisis. Suddenly, there was talk of peacekeeping missions, of fighting piracy and drug trafficking. During this time, Europe largely lost its defense capabilities," Lakichuk points out.
According to him, NATO's biggest problem today, along with military capabilities, is the allies' fear of war. "NATO is afraid of war. And when you are afraid and the enemy sees it, there is no longer intimidation, but blackmail. That is exactly what Russia uses."
Lakichuk points out that in many Western capitals, Ukraine is still not perceived as an irrevocable factor for European security. According to the expert, the belief that the risks of Ukraine's accession outweigh the advantages continues to prevail in Europe. But if it were realized that it was Ukraine, together with its allies, that could defend Europe, the situation would look completely different, Lakichuk believes.
Does Kiev need NATO more than NATO needs Kiev?
According to Serhiy Dzherzh from the Public League "Ukraine-NATO", it is too early to assume that the country's accession to NATO is impossible, since the international situation is constantly changing. He emphasized to DW that one should think about who Zaluzhny's words were addressed to. Dzherzh suggests that they were addressed to Ukraine's Western partners as a kind of call to accelerate the country's accession to the Alliance.
According to the expert, integration into NATO is not limited to the question of future membership. He reminds us that it was cooperation with NATO even before the start of accession negotiations with the EU that created the basis for the comprehensive reform of the Ukrainian state. "Ukraine needs closer ties with the Alliance much more than the opposite. We are reforming our army, public administration and security sector. And we are the ones who need these changes first." Dzherj is convinced that if the path to NATO membership turns out to be longer than expected, this should not be a reason to abandon this strategic course, which is also written into the Ukrainian constitution.
New alliances
Olexy Melnyk from the Ukrainian research center "Razumkov" believes that Zaluzhny's words about possible new alliances do not mean a rejection of NATO. "We are already seeing the Coalition of the Willing and deepening Ukraine's cooperation with Great Britain, France, Germany, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries. These formats may take on a more solid institutional form in the future."
According to Melnik, these formats are based on common security interests, but cannot replace NATO. "If we talk about a military-political alliance, there are currently no alternatives to NATO", the expert added, emphasizing that almost all potential participants in the new alliances are also members of NATO, which is why they will not represent competition for the Alliance. "This is not an alternative, but a complement. Ukraine must maintain its strategic course for joining NATO and, in parallel, develop additional security mechanisms."
Melnik does not believe that Ukraine's path to NATO is completely closed. According to him, the main obstacle to membership is the war itself. "If Ukraine is invited to NATO now, it will mean that the Alliance will automatically enter into war with Russia. None of the member states is ready for this," the expert says. After the end of the fighting, the situation could change significantly, he adds. Therefore, it is too early to say that NATO's doors are closed to Ukraine.