The law on the disarmament of the PKK and the partial amnesty of detainees is a historic step. However, it does not meet the main Kurdish demands. And Turkish President Erdogan is most likely pursuing other goals.
The tone has now completely changed, even from Devlet Bahçeli. The far-right politician, chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party /MHP/ and coalition partner of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wants the prospect of releasing Abdullah Öcalan from prison, notes ARD and comments that just a few years ago, many in Turkey would probably have considered this fake news. Because Bahçeli was known for demanding the death penalty for the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Historical law
However, Öcalan plays an important role in the process of rapprochement between the PKK and the Turkish state. From the prison island of Imrali last year, he called on PKK members to lay down their arms. According to him, this is not a loss, but a “historic victory“, recalls the German media. 13 months later, the Turkish parliament passed a law with a large majority that provides for the disarmament of the PKK.
The so-called “framework law“ could lead to the release of thousands of people from Turkish prisons convicted of PKK membership or propaganda. The provisions exclude those convicted of murder and prisoners who were sentenced to life or other severe sentences before June 2005, as in the case of Öcalan.
A prerequisite for all this is the confirmation by the National Security Council that the PKK is completely disarmed. And until that happens, it may be a long time. Öcalan himself speaks of the “first step on a thousand-kilometer road“.
The demands of the Kurds
But the very fact that the law was passed by the Turkish parliament is a historic event, summarizes ARD and quotes Vahap Koşkun, a law professor in Diyarbakır, the unofficial capital of Turkish Kurds. "For more than 30 years, Turkey has been trying to disarm the PKK. There have been 13 attempts to date, but none of them have gone as far as today,“ says the expert. As a result of the fighting between the PKK and Turkish forces since 1984, more than 40,000 people have died.
However, Koşkun also emphasizes that the adoption of the law does not mean “that the Kurdish issue is resolved, because the Kurds have several specific demands“. For example, the recognition of their language in the judiciary and administration, mother tongue education in schools, greater municipal self-government and a softening of the “Anti-Terrorism Law“. It is currently so broadly worded that any pro-Kurdish statement can lead to imprisonment.
What are Erdogan's motives?
The pro-Kurdish DEM party criticizes the fact that the government discussed the bill with the detained Öcalan, and not with the elected deputies - despite this, it voted "for". This could be the possible motive for Erdogan's rapprochement with the Kurds: through concessions, he clearly wants to take the party out of the opposition camp, to which it has belonged since 2018.
Because Erdogan will probably need the votes of Kurdish deputies and voters. He wants to remain president of Turkey after his term expires, which usually lasts until 2028. The constitution provides for a maximum of two terms - unless early elections are called. To dissolve parliament, the ruling coalition of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Nationalist Action Party (MHP) will need the votes of the pro-Kurdish DEM party.
A second option would be a change to the Constitution. Vahap Koşkun believes that the president can secure the support of the Kurds. If “a constitutional amendment is adopted that meets Kurdish demands, a significant part of the Kurdish voters could support this amendment, even if it means extending Erdogan's mandate“. Because for them, the decisive moment is the resolution of the Kurdish issue, explains the ARD.
Foreign policy factors
But this is probably not the president's only motive. Other motives are related to foreign policy. The law could thus further strengthen Turkey's role as a strong player in the region.
In northern Syria, the law would deprive Kurdish units of the opportunity to claim an ongoing liberation struggle. With the PKK's dissolution, support for its claims to its own autonomous zone in Syria would also weaken. And from Iraq, Turkey could withdraw its troops and thus further improve economic cooperation.
And more: Erdogan could present to Europe a “resolved” conflict and Turkey as a stable partner. The EU has long criticized the treatment of the Kurds and Turkey's anti-terrorism legislation, such as the ten-year prison sentence of former presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş. The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) is demanding his release, and Turkey should actually be bound by the ECHR's decisions. Whether this will actually happen, however, is questionable, although Demirtaş himself supports the framework law as a step towards peace.