The presidential race in Bulgaria is beginning to take shape, but by the end of August one important feature remains unchanged – there are many candidates, and the big clash has not yet begun. A new president will be elected on October 25, and political parties seem to still be playing poker and carefully monitoring the cards of the others. In first place is Iliyana Yotova. She has already announced her candidacy, and Rumen Radev’s “Progressive Bulgaria” stood behind her. This is the strongest political infrastructure that currently stands behind a candidate in the presidential race. Radev officially stated that his formation will support Yotova, and she herself will be nominated through an initiative committee. That is why Yotova is currently being placed in the role of favorite. But it would be premature to talk about a predetermined election now. The presidential vote is most likely to go to a runoff, with the main intrigue being who will be Yotova's rival.
And here comes the big question – Andrey Gyurov.
PP and DB have already reached an agreement on his candidacy, and according to the latest information, work is underway on a presidential candidate pair with him. However, Gyurov himself has not yet made the final public announcement. This delay is already starting to look like a political problem. In a presidential campaign, time is a resource. The candidate must be recognizable, build an image, present his positions and, above all, show why the voter should prefer him over the others. Gyurov has the potential to be a serious contender, but potential alone does not win elections. Moreover, the entire right-wing spectrum will not automatically stand behind him. UDF has already stated that it will not support him, even if GERB decides to do so.
And this leads us to the biggest unknown – GERB
Boyko Borisov and his party decided not to nominate their own candidate. This decision could turn out to be both an extremely strong move and a huge risk. GERB has its own electoral resource, but instead of turning it into a candidacy, it leaves the other formations to fight for the role of Yotova's main opponent. Thus, GERB becomes a kind of arbiter of the first round - silence or just humiliation. If GERB supports Gyurov, this could give him a serious boost to the runoff. But such support would also be a political paradox - GERB voters would be called upon to vote for a candidate who comes from the political space of the PP-DB. And this is precisely where one of Gyurov's greatest weaknesses lies. He must attract not only the traditional right-wing voter, but also people outside the PP-DB core, and it is believed that he has the potential to attract centrist voters as well.
While Gyurov is delaying, other candidates are already entering the campaign.
Ivan Hristanov officially announced that he will run for president and will be nominated by an initiative committee. He is trying to occupy the space of the independent candidate who does not want to be a product of party headquarters. Radostin Vassilev is also already in the race as a candidate of MECH. Nikolay Nenchev is the nomination of BZNS. And there is “Vazrazhdane“, which may turn out to be a particularly interesting factor. Kostadin Kostadinov's party is still choosing between five people, with the final nomination expected at the end of August.
It is the candidate of “Vazrazhdane“ can change the calculations for the second round.
Currently, two opposing theses are being heard. One is that Yotova has a sufficiently serious lead and the main battle will be who will take second place. The other is that in a fragmented first round, the candidate of “Vazrazhdane“ can consolidate a significant part of the protest, nationalist and Eurosceptic vote and end up in a runoff.
This is actually the great peculiarity of the elections.
In Bulgaria, there is no longer a classic battle of “left versus right“. There is a battle for who will be able to gather the scattered discontent. Yotova has institutional weight, party support and Radev's legacy behind her. Gyurov has the opportunity to become the main pro-European candidate of the opposition, but he must prove that he can go beyond the framework of the PP-DB. “Vazrazhdane“ has the potential to gather a protest vote, but it remains to be seen who its candidate will be. Hristanov is trying to position himself as an independent alternative, while Vassilev is already occupying a more acute protest space.
The lack of a GERB candidate.
She could be the biggest surprise of these elections. Because if Borisov does not run his own candidate, GERB will not simply observe the elections. It will decide who to support and potentially whom to send to a runoff. That is why, by the end of August, the elections look more like a battle for second place than a battle for first. But that could change very quickly. That is why Yotova may be the favorite today, but that does not automatically mean a winner on October 25. And the big question for the rest is even simpler: who will be able to convince Bulgarians that the choice is not predetermined? Because if the opposition enters this campaign scattered, with several candidates and without a common strategy, Yotova may indeed prove unattainable. However, if a candidate emerges against her who manages to bring together different political groups, the center and part of the protest vote, then the presidential elections could become the most interesting political clash of the year.