Six months after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the war that President Donald Trump called a "little adventure" has degenerated into a deeply unpopular stalemate that threatens to derail his presidency.
Iran has not surrendered, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, and there is no clear path to ending the conflict that Trump once predicted would end in four weeks.
Now, apparently recognizing that further military strikes will not force Iran to make concessions, the United States is returning to a campaign of economic pressure in the hope of further weakening the Iranian government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has told allies that the United States is unlikely to launch new attacks for now.
What will happen next is unclear, but many of the likely long-term consequences of the war — for the United States, Iran and the global economy — are already apparent.
Iran denounces U.S. sanctions as terrorism
In a letter to the United Nations
Here are six of them:
1. Trump is paying a political price
The war was unpopular from the start, and it is even more so now. Trump's approval rating has fallen from 40% to 33% since the conflict began, according to polls, as rising gas prices have undermined his 2024 campaign promise to cut costs for Americans.
Trump, who campaigned on a promise to end wars, has argued that Iran's missile buildup and nuclear ambitions have made action necessary, but he has failed to convince most voters. Polls show just 31% of Americans approve of the conflict. That's lower than other recent U.S. military conflicts at similar stages, including the war in Afghanistan, which for years had approval ratings above 50%.
Voter anger over the high cost poses problems for Trump's Republican Party ahead of November midterm elections, when the party must defend its fragile majorities in both houses of Congress.
The conflict has also deepened the rift between more isolationist Republicans, who want a quick end to the war, and Republican lawmakers who believe Trump should continue military pressure on Tehran.
Netanyahu: No deal with the "savages" running Iran
He warned that Israel is ready to defend itself if Iran attacks again
2. The war has shaken the global economy — but less than feared
The US and Israeli attacks have raised concerns about the Strait of Hormuz — which narrows to about 34km between Iran and Oman — through which about a fifth of the world’s energy supplies pass. The disruption to shipping has sent oil prices soaring and raised fears of a global economic downturn.
The damage is significant but less than many economists initially feared. The International Monetary Fund has twice lowered its forecast for global economic growth since the war began and now expects the global economy to grow by 3% this year, down from a forecast of 3.3% in January.
Nevertheless, the global economy has proven more resilient than during the oil shocks of the 1970s. Major economies are less energy-dependent than they were then, and strong consumption and investment — including the ongoing boom in artificial intelligence — have helped cushion the blow.
Rubio: US is betting on blockade and economic pressure on Iran
This policy will remain in place at least until the midterm elections for Congress
3. Iran is weakened, but not defeated
The country's military and economy have suffered heavy damage, but Tehran can still strike and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
In May, the top US commander in the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, told Congress that US forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and disabled 82% of Iran's air defense systems. He said the Iranian air force, which previously flew up to 100 sorties a day, was no longer flying missions.
However, Iran still has drones and missiles and has successfully attacked ships and US military installations in the region.
In March, it was reported that the United States could determine with certainty that it had destroyed only about a third of Iran’s vast missile arsenal. The status of another third is less clear, but sources at the time said the bombings likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers.
The war has killed thousands and deepened Iran’s economic crisis, fueling inflation and disrupting trade. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, food inflation reached an annualized 128% in July.
But the conflict has also pushed political divisions to the background and led to a more severe crackdown on dissent.
The United States maintains a sizeable warship off the coast of Iran.
The naval blockade continues
4. The Middle East is destabilized and U.S. allies are at risk.
The U.S.-Israeli war was intended to remove Iran as a threat to the Middle East, but analysts say it has instead emboldened Tehran and made the region more insecure.
Iranian drone and missile attacks on Gulf Arab states that are allies of the United States have hit U.S. military and diplomatic targets and disrupted air traffic.
Iran's attacks on shipping, combined with the Houthi blockade of Saudi-linked traffic in the Red Sea, have raised insurance and transportation costs across the region. The consequences extend far beyond individual attacks on ships, disrupting supply chains and increasing uncertainty for the economies of Gulf states.
Pete Hegseth hints at new strikes against the ayatollahs' regime
White House bets on economic pressure
5. Iran may need more time to produce nuclear weapons
The US and Israeli attacks during the earlier strike in June 2025 and in the initial phase of the current war caused severe damage to three known Iranian uranium enrichment facilities and sites believed to be related to weapons development. The Israeli strikes also killed top Iranian nuclear scientists.
According to US intelligence assessments in May, Iran's projected — — the time needed to produce enough fissile material for a nuclear bomb — is up to a year, compared to up to six months before the war.
Preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon is Trump's main stated goal in the war.
The actual status of the country's nuclear program, however, remains unclear, as UN inspectors have not returned to Iranian nuclear sites. The International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to locate about 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60% since the 2025 strikes.
This stockpile could potentially be further enriched to weapons-grade at a secret facility.
Iran has long denied seeking a nuclear bomb.
Iran expects Trump's new sanctions to fail as well
The ayatollahs' regime had developed a two-year plan
6. US military readiness has weakened
The US military has lost drones and aircraft both to Iranian fire and to accidents. A May congressional report stated that 42 US military aircraft were lost in the conflict.
Ammunition is a serious problem. The U.S. military has used up "nearly all" of its global stockpile of certain precision-guided missiles. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that by July, the United States had used about 65 percent of its Patriot interceptor missiles and had reduced its Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors by at least 38 percent.
Washington has shifted fighter jets, warships and other military assets from Europe and the Asia-Pacific region to the Middle East, extending their deployments that have raised questions about the readiness of U.S. forces elsewhere.
The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford has remained deployed for more than a year — its longest deployment since the Vietnam War — and lawmakers have expressed concerns about conditions aboard the "Abraham Lincoln" after 200 consecutive days at sea.
Last week, the aircraft carrier was replaced by another that had been in the Pacific, underscoring the strain the war is placing on American military resources.