In a world of China-US competition as a competition between two systems, “open banditry”, as they call the kidnapping of Maduro from Caracas to New York and the conclusion of an agreement with Rodriguez today, without precedent in world history? For long-term control by Washington of 22% of oil reserves and 55% of oil production in Venezuela. In a world of “secret, top secret meetings” between the CIA and Russian intelligence services in Moscow, at a Sheibani-Mossad meeting in Amman, Jordan, a world of regional alliances like the “Mecca Pact” consequence of the war against Iran and to top it off an interview with Lavrov, who states that “Russia is preparing for a world in which the West no longer sets the rules”. The addition is that “the opposition to the West is part of a larger redistribution of economic and political weight in the world”. The reason is also “the finally lost trust in this West”.
There is no way that relations can return to the way they were before 2022, says Lavrov, and the attitude towards Europe is negative. It has lost strategic independence and cannot offer independent structures for relations with Russia. Whatever happens with Ukraine, this state of affairs will not change. London remains “an independent adversary in the Russian picture” and with a direct connection in historical terms. The consistent English strategy of limiting Russian influence in Europe and Eurasia is not only rejected by Lavrov, but the emphasis is placed on the fact that Russia is in no hurry. Moscow needed a deal that could withstand the pressure of multiple centers of influence, and this means that what happened thanks to the English Prime Minister Johnson in Istanbul during the negotiations in 2022 to resolve the war in Ukraine is a big earring for Russian ears. Separately, there are the murders of Ukrainian negotiators at these negotiations.
If we start with the comments that flooded the world media after Radcliffe's meeting in Moscow with Bortnikov, director of the FSB, and Naryshkin, foreign intelligence service, SVR, it is striking that the most talkative is the “New York Times”, NYT. No threats were made, but it was reported that “Russia must strive for peace as soon as possible before its military and economic situation deteriorates further”. They write that this intelligence channel was managed as a parallel line of contact between Witkoff and Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, because they judged that
“Putin, with his experience in intelligence, can take messages from the CIA director more seriously than traditional diplomatic channels”.
There's no way the answer wouldn't be “if Russia is losing in your opinion, why are there ceasefire negotiations”? Is there a way to just revive the negotiations, because Trump needs some success before November 3, for the midterm elections? Is there a concrete change in Washington's policy towards Russia, and also towards Ukraine? A number of Western media outlets, not including the NYT, have already written that “they came back empty-handed”. What did these top leaders of the US and Russian intelligence services actually talk about? In principle, they did not stop their contacts. Some money underfoot? The Chinese, true to their proverbs, have they lined up by the river to wait for the corpses of their enemies? The topic will be discussed after the meeting in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.
Instead of the “post-Soviet space”, Moscow now calls the former socialist republics in Central Asia “near abroad” and it is there, in Bishkek, that a meeting of the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, will take place on August 31 - September 1. Such international events truly offer a good opportunity for bilateral contacts and exchange of opinions. Positions will apparently be exchanged, principled actions in mutual interest will be agreed upon, and ways to resolve misunderstandings and problems that have arisen will be sought. Ushakov, Putin's advisor, has already announced that Putin will talk with Xi Jinping on August 31, and with Iranian President Massoud Pazeshkian on September 1. Strategic partners, BRICS members, advocating coordinated positions not only on the situation with the war against Iran, but also on the events in the Middle East, including the Gulf, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen. A meeting of Putin and Erdogan is scheduled for September 1, where issues related to the situation in the Black Sea, the topic of Ukraine in general, why not Syria, but with more attention to the further development of cooperation in trade and economic relations are expected to be discussed.
There are many unclear positions regarding Turkey's policy in Syria, Iraqi Kurdistan, Libya, ambitions for a leading role in the region and expressing opinions in favor of Kiev.
In Moscow, they often say that Turkey "stuck a knife in our back". Including Crimea, the activities of the Tatars positioned in Kiev, and Turkey's role in the "Russian backyard" such as the Caucasus and the republics of Central Asia. Historically, the knife thing has often happened. And London has always stood behind Ankara's back since the time of the Ottoman Empire. In our time, it is claimed that London had its own strings to pull, even for the conclusion of the notorious "Pact of Mecca". The fact that Ankara summoned the Ukrainian ambassador to explain why Turkish cargo ships were attacked in the Black Sea /as in Tuapse/ and even Turkish sailors were killed is just the apple of its eye. For centuries, the Russia/Turkey game has been complex, contradictory and ebbs and flows. Each with its own interests. Sometimes they coincide in global politics. Today, Ankara is relying heavily on the meeting in Bishkek, because it became clear who is dealing the cards to each other, and Turkey is definitely not playing there. Reference - Radcliffe/Naryshkin. Moreover, in Bishkek, Putin will also meet with Narendra Modi, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, who is trying to sit on two chairs between the EU and the SCO, a total of 9 meetings. Separately, there are talks with the leaders of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Mongolia. It is also important because of the project "Power of Siberia-2" between China and Russia. So much for the issue of Moscow's isolation. The reorientation to the East is underway.
At the same time, one should not ignore the “codes of the secret meeting”, which took place 5 days after Israel attacked the Abu Duhur air base, near Idlib in Syria.
Mossad Director Roman Hoffman meets with Syrian Foreign Minister Sheibani in Amman, Jordan. According to Damascus, Sheibani “put Hoffman in his place” because he had said that “the Golan Heights are Syrian territory and the Israeli occupation is unacceptable”. The reality is different, because there is a Washington-Tel Aviv axis, and according to the US “we brought the new regime in Damascus there and we are keeping it there”, which is actually the implementation of a “leash control mechanism”. The US outlines the limitations of Damascus's foreign policy, which is forced to seek refuge under Washington's security umbrella. Since August 23, since Jordan, Syria has been outside the "state sponsors of terrorism". If Syria is to be restored, it is clear that it is not profitable for the US to turn it into a battlefield of an Israeli-Turkish conflict. The US hardly wants Israel to leave Syria completely. But removing Turkey from Syria is not easy either. Rather, the US would prefer to control the military competition between Turkey, Israel and Syria. This has been Washington's traditional policy lately. Any other scenarios would disrupt the entire US strategic project for Syria. Apparently, the conflict in Syria is not a "Turkish-Israeli issue". Tel Aviv undoubtedly has concerns about the future, especially after Gaza and Hamas's refusal to hand over weapons after it does not leave the enclave. This forces Washington to move from a policy of administration of governments like the one in Damascus to a policy of integration and control over it within the framework of a certain system. Or as they say, “not Syria under the protection of Turkey, but Syria integrated into the international system”. Then why is Ankara knocking them down, as we say in Bulgaria? Will they eliminate Turkey’s influence over Damascus? Washington certainly does not want Turkey to be a determining factor. They want Ankara as a partner who has opened the fortress of Syria, but has Erdogan not ultimately created his own key in this partnership? Some in Ankara are asking themselves this question.
And this is the world we live in. A world about which some in Moscow say that “the Mecca agreement is a product of the desire of medium-sized countries to escape from being hostages of great power competition”.
Definitely an attempt to create a security architecture in the Middle East that was destroyed by the US and Israel. It was not a “block against Iran”. They say “a new strategic reality after the war against Iran”. And whether there is also a goal behind the scenes to prevent attempts to restore a “Shiite crescent” will soon be clear. A “block operating under the leadership of the US” is not allowed, because they believe that it reflects the shadow of London. It was only a regional security mechanism in accordance with their own strategic calculations. They are aware that they are not breaking ties in existing alliances.
Whatever one may say, the important thing at this stage in the world is that China and the US are already competing side by side and have entered a period that will determine who will finish first. China has caught up with the US in all conventional sectors and has even surpassed them by a large margin. Putin also emphasizes this. They say that only psychologically the US is ahead. One can argue about the topic. But the fact is that the race is in its final phase. Who will win it? The future of the world depends on this. And the jokes are in the style of “who will get their eyes pulled out first”. And the difference between the two systems is debated - the competition between capitalism and socialism. A topic to be continued. But there is simply no way out of this world in which we are forced to live. Will we have our own path with good orientation and normal coexistence? Patience, the cards are still being dealt. It is not known who ultimately holds the winning trump card.